March.25 : Normal bilateral relations between any two countries would normally not excite undue interest here. However, the foreign minister-level strategic dialogue between Pakistan and the United States which began in Washington on Wednesday cannot but have a direct bearing on India. Unless the past is no guide, the Pakistani agenda is certain to include Kashmir and Afghanistan.
There is also the distinct possibility of the US being more attentive to Pakistan’s demand for civil nuclear energy cooperation on the same pattern as America’s agreement with India in that sensitive field. Afghanistan and the nuclear question go beyond the realm of the bilateral. And it has been Pakistan’s persistent effort over decades to internationalise the Kashmir issue, which continues to occupy a significant space in Islamabad’s strategic calculus, although this is far from warranted in terms of the history of India’s Partition. Given the nature of the discussion menu, New Delhi needs to remain alert to the emergence of new conversation tracks between Islamabad and Washington that may be prejudicial to its interests. At present, it is Washington that is vulnerable to Pakistani pressures, not the other way round, in the matter of Afghanistan. It has come to be widely believed that the US is looking for an honourable exit out of Afghanistan, and many in the Obama administration appear to think this is only possible if the generals in Islamabad are around to help inserting the Taliban (whom they have cosseted) into the governance structures in Kabul. There is some irony in this. America spent the past nine years trying to rub the Taliban out of existence with Pakistani assistance, but Islamabad was perfidious — playing both ends. Washington, now at the end of its tether, is looking for a way out of Afghanistan even if this means having the Taliban back in Kabul. It is an entirely fanciful thought, of course, that the Taliban’s return will mean tranquillity for Afghanistan and elimination of jihadist streams which would like to dunk America into the Atlantic. The smallest real possibility of the Taliban returning as rulers is likely to set off a kinetic reaction among different factions in Afghan politics, which can only destabilise the situation to the detriment of regional and international security.
Pakistan’s Army chief Gen. Ashfaq Parvez Kayani and ISI head Lt. Gen. Shuja Pasha will be the real interlocutors for the US during the strategic dialogue, although foreign minister Shah Mehmood Qureshi will notionally lead his country’s team. The Pakistan Army is out to reassert itself by installing the Taliban, and thus exclude India from Kabul. If Washington sees this in its own interest, it is likely to give in to the persistent Pakistan demand for a civil nuclear deal (to gain parity with India). A projected nuclear agreement with Pakistan, even if this is not like the Indian deal and does have strings attached, is likely to put Washington alongside North Korea, China, and some others who have no hesitation playing ducks and drakes with international nuclear non-proliferation covenants when it comes to dealing with a known clandestine proliferator such as Pakistan, which has rightly been treated as an international pariah in the nuclear and missiles field due to its abysmal track record. The silence at this juncture of the nattering nabobs of counter-proliferation in the US establishment, who had kicked up a shindig when India was discussing the civil nuclear agreement with Washington, is deafening. India must not fail to read the tea leaves. First, it must exert return pressure on Washington by withholding the Civil Nuclear Liability Bill from Parliament and in general adopt a stance of discouraging American companies making nuclear materials from setting up shop in India. Much depends on Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and the Congress Party.
