April 17 : The days leading up to the reconvening of Parliament’s Budget Session after the customary three-week break on Thursday saw considerable preparatory activity by most non-Congress parties with a view to embarrassing the UPA-2 government by attempting to defeat the
Finance Bill, whose passage gives effect to the Union Budget. Convention dictates that in the event (unlikely as it sounds) a Finance Bill is defeated on the floor of the Lok Sabha, the government will fall. This very fear might deter many parties from voting in favour of the cut motions that may be introduced by BJP or Left MPs. Non-Congress MPs in the Lok Sabha, including Independents, number more than 260. The 22 BSP MPs did not join the 13 non-UPA-non-NDA parties (totalling nearly 90 MPs) recently to decide in favour of supporting cut motions even if these are moved by the BJP. But this can easily change, just as the group of 13 can experience erosion from its ranks. Thus, while the lineup of parties likely to support cut motions cannot be ascertained in advance, a large percentage of the House might be expected to vote against the government on the Finance Bill.
It is widely thought that the BJP and the Left would be wary of fresh elections so soon after last May’s Lok Sabha polls as these parties faced crushing blows and need more time to recoup politically and organisationally. This proposition is yet to be tested. All the same, the question of the relentless rise in prices of essential commodities for the past year does unite parties in the House that are ranged against the government, whether or not they really have their heart in the enterprise of defeating the government on a money bill, thus forcing the formation of a new government. Even those who are not fundamentally against the government are exercised over rising prices as this hits their constituents hard. The government itself is deeply embarrassed and nervous about the price situation, and knows well it can do little in the short term to deal with the mess. The poorer sections too can’t be given redress. The public distribution system is in a shambles at the all-India level. A Planning Commission report estimates that 65 per cent of PDS benefits have been cornered by non-needy persons, and the poorest 20 per cent have not even been identified, leave alone having ration cards. The government’s best hope, therefore, is a good crop. Given this, the mobilisation of a broad spectrum of parties on a cut motion over prices might prove to be a political act whose impact would serve as an object lesson for the future. It would indicate to supporters and opponents of the government UPA-2’s core strength in the Lok Sabha. Strategies for the future, including by disgruntled elements in UPA-2, can be founded on this. For now, the government might have the comfort of possessing the needed numbers in the House, but even so there can be no margins for error in floor management.
Since the government will be focused mainly on getting the Finance Bill safely out of the way, it is unlikely to take up any deeply contentious matter such as the Women’s Reservation Bill in the current session. It was therefore an extraordinary sight to see AICC general secretary Digvijay Singh (who is often perceived as reflecting the views of the party’s topmost leaders) — attack Union home minister P. Chidambaram on his Naxalite strategy through a newspaper article. It is just as well that the home minister clarified in Parliament that the policy on tackling Maoists had the backing of both the Prime Minister and Mrs Gandhi. The Congress also needs to communicate better with its allies.
