Important issues such as reservation for women are not determined by numbers. They are determined by the sentiment behind the legislation. The Samajwadi Party (SP) and the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) have created a political mess for themselves over this issue and the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) has done a little better. The Trinamul Congress, engrossed in its battle with the Left, is wearing “political blinkers” which, in the long term, may prove to be a liability!
It may take a decade for the legislation to be fully operational but nonetheless this is an important step in the right direction. It is a good thing that the media has been debating this issue in great detail because we have, even if willy-nilly, created history. Prime Minister Manmohan Singh expressed the right sentiment by thanking the Opposition and, as someone wisely remarked, we are slowly but surely acknowledging the fact that life on this planet is born of women!
Major political acts cannot be viewed in isolation and as I have written on several occasions in the past, the trends of the future will emerge well before 2014. If we look at the larger picture, the Congress, under the leadership of Mrs Sonia Gandhi, continues to gain, and with an acceptable succession plan in place the party is in a strong position. The political reality is that the Congress tally of 200 seats may well extend to the magic figure of 272.
The BJP too is gaining in strength as an effective Opposition under its new president, Nitin Gadkari. This was visible as Arun Jaitley in the Rajya Sabha and Sushma Swaraj in the Lok Sabha challenged the ruling party with authority and competence. The BJP’s handling of the Mumbai issue with the Shiv Sena and now their stand on the Women’s Reservation Bill indicates that the party is paying attention to public opinion.
The credible performance by BJP chief ministers in Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Himachal Pradesh and Chhattisgarh is commendable; their only weakness is in Karnataka. As the BJP shows signs of stability they may be able to protect their share of 100 seats. But eventually, much will depend on the BJP’s ability to understand the compulsions of coalition politics and the need to have an acceptable political agenda.
The Left has a bleak future and this is because it clings to an ideology that has little relevance today. Left leaders have learnt little from the Communist movement in China and Russia and the economic reforms initiated in those countries.
The political parties that are in severe trouble are the SP, the RJD, and the Lok Janashakti Party. These parties, along with the Left, could form a third front in the future when political forces begin to consolidate — together they held close to 130 Lok Sabha seats in 2004, which came down to 60 seats in 2009, and can get much worse given the current trends.
The RJD and the SP’s votebase has shrunk in Bihar and Uttar Pradesh respectively, and they are trying to cling to the “minority” vote. Their Opposition to the Women’s Reservation Bill is just another attempt to consolidate their votebank. The same principle applies to the BSP and the Trinamul Congress, though I think they are making a mistake.
The BSP in Uttar Pradesh, with 20-plus seats, is static and has made little progress in other states. The party may well consider a “local” combination to add to its vote percentage.
I think we will witness alliances in north India and several credible leaders like Orissa chief minister Naveen Patnaik, Bihar’s chief minister Nitish Kumar, J. Jayalalithaa in Tamil Nadu, Chandrababu Naidu in Andhra Pradesh and even Mamata Banerjee in West Bengal will have to think of the future.
The battle for the Women’s Reservation Bill will now move to the Lok Sabha where, in theory at least, there could be a tricky situation if the SP and the RJD threaten to withdraw support from the Central government. The intentions of the BSP are no different and each party will negotiate with the Congress for “amendments”. But if any “changes” are made, the support of the BJP and the Left to the bill cannot be guaranteed.
The Rajya Sabha episode has shown poor coordination by the Congress, both with their allies and with the Opposition. There are far too many political accidents taking place and complacency or arrogance in politics often extract a very heavy cost.
Political churning will go on and in the midst of all this turmoil Congress general secretary Rahul Gandhi pursues his mission of creating a meritocracy within the Congress. His efforts in the Youth Congress and the National Students’ Union of India have had a great degree of success and may well provide the decisive edge which the Congress needs to return to power with majority after two decades of coalition governance.
The Indian Premier League (IPL) season 3 has started with a bang, and with capacity crowds at the stadiums. In the next six weeks we will see the best that T20 cricket has to offer. All the credit for this must go IPL chairman Lalit Modi. He has done India proud and I am surprised that no one has recommended him for a medal!
IPL-3 will relegate other issues to the background but we have serious security issues that need serious attention. Across the border in Pakistan, the Taliban is causing violence and death and the situation in Afghanistan is far from happy. In both the cases India has to carefully calibrate its policy initiatives for the future.
Union home minister P. Chidambaram and the United Progressive Alliance government continue to reclaim lost ground from the Maoists. Despite political, cultural and sporting events which do occasionally divert our attention we have to focus on the security threats we face on several fronts — from forces that are determined to undermine India’s progress towards achieving the status of a superpower.
Arun Nehru is a former Union minister
Arun Nehru
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