The big poll picture

April.04 : Political temperatures are rising as the Assembly elections in Bihar come closer. All political parties, big and small, have started playing games for political longevity. But all this activity is not always positive though few, if any, understand that any form of excess can prove costly at the ballot. 

The traditional votebank based on caste and religion persists and whilst price rise and inflation are always electoral issues, there is greater awareness about the global economy and the challenges of the future. 

The extensive spread of television networks and 24x7 media coverage is increasing awareness about several social issues and growth in income level is raising expectations. And to add to this confusion are millions of new voters. 
The big picture shows that the Congress will consolidate and move towards gaining the magic figure of 272 Lok Sabha seats. Whilst the main Opposition party — the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) — manages to show signs of consolidation, it has much to do even to maintain a 100-seat position. The Left continues to flounder and the Mandal forces in Uttar Pradesh and Bihar also continue to slide — both the Samajwadi Party (SP) in Uttar Pradesh and the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) in Bihar are in trouble. Many electoral alliances will change as new power positions begin to take place in these states. Let us try to understand the likely trends for the future. 
Uttar Pradesh with 80 seats is critical for everyone. In the last few months we have seen chief minister Mayawati and the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) winning a majority of the 13 byelections with huge margins. But its intolerance and strong-arm tactics indicate “uncertainty”. The SP continues to splinter as Mulayam Singh Yadav and Amar Singh go in different directions. 
Both the BSP and the SP, in order to protect their traditional votebanks, are showing signs of desperation. While Ms Mayawati has filed a first information report to investigate the “bee attack” during her rally, Mr Mulayam Singh Yadav made some very comic comments about the Women’s Reservation Bill. With a year to go for Assembly elections in the state, we can expect increased turmoil especially since the four major players do not have the luxury of forming any alliance to secure their future. 
In Bihar the Congress may achieve a breakthrough like it did in Uttar Pradesh (owing to the upper caste vote) in the Lok Sabha general elections, but the alliance of Janata Dal-United (JD-U) and the BJP will remian ahead of everyone else, a few tremors within the alliance notwithstanding. Much of this can be attributed to the caste divide in Bihar. The RJD and the Lok Janshakti Party (LJP), however, will continue to slide. 
Even a limited gain by the Congress in Bihar will serve as a big advantage in the Assembly elections in Uttar Pradesh, West Bengal and Kerala due in 2012. 
Let us now look at West Bengal (42 seats), Maharashtra (48 seats) and Tamil Nadu (40 seats). Along with Uttar Pradesh and Bihar, these five states have 250 Lok Sabha seats in total and will shape the structure of the next government in Delhi. 
In West Bengal, you don’t need a political astrologer to predict that Mamata Banerjee and the Trinamul Congress will win by more than a mile. Ms Banerjee is focused on victory and has little hesitation in exerting her influence on the United Progressive Alliance (UPA) government with her 21 members of Parliament to protect and consolidate her votebank. This explains her posture on the Women’s Reservation Bill and on several “security” issues in the state. The Congress is wise not to seek any confrontation with the Trinamul Congress and as things stand the Trinamul Congress may well increase its Lok Sabha tally from 21 to 30 seats. 
I see the Trinamul Congress as the major regional force in 2014 and there will be many opportunities for Ms Banerjee to attract “allies” at the Centre and in the state. But Ms Banerjee will achieve little till she has the requisite numbers both at the Centre and in the states. 
Maharashtra with 48 seats will see major changes in both, the Congress and Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) alliance and the BJP-Shiv Sena agreement. The Congress, after the Lok Sabha and the Assembly elections, has gained an “upper hand” over the NCP, and Sharad Pawar, with limited number of MPs, has little say at the Centre. Unless Mr Pawar can hold his position in the state, the “succession” battle within the NCP may trigger an exodus to the Congress. The BJP-Shiv Sena alliance is on the decline and despite a four-party system in the state I see limited options for the Opposition. The NCP and the Congress will gain in the immediate future. 
The succession battle in the Dravid Munnetra Kazhagham (DMK) is not likely to subside and we may see very dramatic swings in re-alignments. Emotional statements issued by DMK supremo M. Karunanidhi are not likely to soften the divide which exists in the DMK family. In such a situation the Congress can do little but all the three major parties are well aware that anti-incumbency trends along with the succession battle can turn the tide in favour of the All-India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam in the next election. 
I see little change in the “large” picture as the UPA consolidates. The return of Mrs Sonia Gandhi as the chairperson of the National Advisory Council indicates that the UPA is determined to push forward the social reform agenda and this is a positive sign for the future. 
We have seen a great deal of political violence (physical and verbal) in recent days. This is unfortunate but all concerned have to realise that in politics, as in life, if you throw a few punches at others then you must learn to accept a few in return. 
 
Arun Nehru is a former Union minister
 
Arun Nehru