The outcome of the byelections — one Lok Sabha and three Assembly — have come as a morale booster for the Opposition parties but the Congress feels it will not have a bearing on about half-a-dozen Assembly elections to be held next year.
The Congress lost the Hisar Lok Sabha byelection in Haryana and the Khadakwasla (Maharash-tra), the Banswada (Andhra Pradesh), the Daraunda (Bihar) Assembly seats. Barring Bihar, the Congress has been ruling Haryana, Maharashtra and Andhra Pradesh.
These bypolls were held at a time when the inflation and corruption posed a major challenge before the Congress and its allies besides the demand of a separate Telangana state.
All these seats were held by the Opposition parties before the bypolls.
In Maharashtra, the Opposition — the BJP, Shiv Sena and the RPI (Athawale) — has enthused by the victory in the the Khadakwasla Assembly seat ahead of the local body elections in the state.
The Opposition views it could be a trend-setter in Maharashtra under the rule of the Congress-NCP combine for over the last 10 years.
But the AICC officials do not think that the results of the byelections will influence Assembly elections in Uttar Pradesh, Punjab, Gujarat, Goa, Uttarakhand and Himachal Pradesh next year. Barring Goa, these states are ruled by the BJP, BSP and the Shiromani Akali Dal. “The BJP-led NDA lost the 2004 Lok Sabha elections within four to five months after winning Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh,” recalled party insiders.
But finance minister Pranab Mukherjee, speaking separately, said losing elections is a “sad thing”. The Congress will have to analyse the reasons behind the defeat. “Of course the party’s loss in election is always a sad thing and we will have to analyse why we lost (in Hisar). What are the reasons. For now, it is not possible for me to make any comment,” he said.
The Congress has yet to explain convincingly as to why jats in Haryana voted for the INLD’s Ajay Chautala. If the factional fights could be the major factor in the Congress’ defeat, other factors certainly played the role in this byelection.
In Maharashra, the defeat has come as a eye-opener for the NCP. Its state unti chief Madhukar Pichad rejected the contention that the defeat was a setback to deputy chief minister Ajit Pawar and his style of functioning. “NCP fought the polls and it is the defeat of the party not one individual.” Mr Pichad also said the defeat cannot be attributed to Anna Hazare’s anti-graft campaign.
“If that was so, the defeat margin would have been massive and not just over 3000,” he said adding, in 2009 the NCP candidate lost by 32,000 votes. The voctory of the JD(U) in Daraundha in Bihar and the TRS in Banswada seat in Andhra Pradesh is on the expected lines.