The recent byelection results — for the Lok Sabha seat at Hisar in Haryana, and the Assembly constituencies of Daraunda in Bihar, Banswada in Andhra Pradesh and Khadakwasla in Maharashtra — can hardly be a gauge of the country’s political mood. Stray byelections in a clutch of states with their distinctive dynamics cannot be a meaningful index of the state of politics in those states themselves, leave alone the country. Generally voter spirit in byelections is set by temporary and local considerations, unlike in a general election when the electorate assesses the possible power balance that could take shape. Even so, it is safe to say that the Congress and the UPA would have been buoyed by even one favourable outcome, and cannot but introspect when it has lost all the four seats for which the results became available on Monday. Drawing a blank is never good for a political party’s pride.
Anti-corruption campaigner Anna Hazare had asked Hisar’s voters to endorse a non-Congress candidate. Looking at the result, no analyst can say that the appeal had any effect. Indeed, the so-called Team Anna is itself in some disarray. Even in the Lok Sabha general election in 2009, the Congress had stood at number three in this constituency. This time, however, the Congress candidate lost his deposit, having polled less than 10 per cent of the votes. This should be a cause for worry for the party in Haryana.
In Andhra Pradesh, the byelection was for a seat in the Telangana region, which is now witnessing a popular agitation for a separate state, and the mood against the Congress was a given. In Bihar, the mood appears resolutely in favour of the JD(U) of chief minister Nitish Kumar, who continues to enjoy considerable goodwill in his state and outside. The Assembly election in Bihar a year ago showed that the Congress was yet to get its political and organisational act together. In any case, it was not the main challenger to the JD(U) nominee, who romped home. The real surprise in the pack was Khadakwasla, near Pune, where it was not the Congress in contention but its UPA partner, the Nationalist Congress Party, which was fighting to retain the seat, part of the home turf of its tallest leader Sharad Pawar. This loss possibly reflects the in-house battles between the NCP and the Congress within the state’s ruling coalition, and not necessarily the growing clout of the BJP and its Hindutva allies, including the Shiv Sena.
While byelections do not show which way the wind blows, the rising prices of food items over an extended period has hit public morale. The UPA will be foolish to lose sight of this.