The ignominious killing of former Libyan strongman Col. Muammar Gaddafi by the Nato-backed rebel forces of the National Transitional Council on Thursday was a murder in captivity in all but name. The rough justice meted out to the man who ruthlessly ruled his country for 42 years, after dethroning the Libyan monarch in a bloodless coup, marks a certain passage of time during which a rude authoritarian modernity came to the Libyan people, along with a modicum of equity, thanks to its vast oil wealth.
Will the end of the dictator pave the way for democracy that many are hoping for, especially the external agents that plotted the autocrat’s downfall and end?
Given the situation on the ground, not many can be said to be optimistic. US President Barack Obama, who along with the leaders of France and Britain orchestrated the mobilising of air power in support of the NTC that has inaugurated the new phase, has spoken of the “difficult, winding road” that lies ahead. Doubts are being expressed whether interim Prime Minister Mahmoud Jibril will be able to bring about an interim government that can oversee elections and the making of a democratic constitution. This should matter most to the Libyan people, not necessarily to the leading Western powers that would not be above contemplating the vivisection of the country if this enables them to control the country’s oil.
Libya is now awash with weapons and no one in particular appears to be in control of them. Fissures along tribal, geographic, ethnic (Arab and Berber) lines, not to overlook an ideological divide between Islamists and secular elements, is staring post-Gaddafi Libya in the face. Large and small armed groups that have no link with the West-supported NTC stalk the land, including the major centres of Tripoli, Benghazi, Misrata and Zentan. These might be expected to demand a share in power in a situation of no clear-cut rules acceptable to all.
Western backing to the rebels in Iraq, Tunisia and Egypt — the latter two as signifying the high points of what is called the “Arab Spring” — have not produced the hoped-for democratic dividend. The anti-government forces instigated and supplied by the West to end dictatorships in these countries were found to be an amorphous mass, with the Islamists being the best organised elements.
India has some justification in treading with caution in this situation. It has extended a modicum of support to the NTC, hoping this outfit will be able to stabilise the situation. At any rate, that is the only recognisable agency that appears to exist in Libya for now. Being tentative in an uncertain situation is not necessarily the worst option.