It’s a pity about Pakistan’s “Memogate”. Already rendered unsteady by terrorism and with an economy in free fall, Pakistan’s public institutions have taken a severe beating in the past decade or so. Morale in the country is extremely low, and its domestic politics is in a state of siege, if the implications of the so-called “Memogate” are anything to go by.
While it is true that Pakistan’s difficulties are of its own making as the country gave active encouragement to terrorist outfits over a protracted period, of late Islamabad did give the impression that it would somewhat modify its stance towards India. That meant going over the objections of the religious right, which is the godfather of terrorism in the country, to work towards normalising at least trade and economic ties with India. It was said at the level of the Pakistan Prime Minister that the Army — which consciously instigated and encouraged the far right over decades and simultaneously propped up terrorism — was on board. With the discovery of “Memogate”, unexpected uncertainties have been introduced into Pakistan’s political system.
We must wait and watch whether foreign policy moves — including towards this country — thought of by the PPP government in the recent period will have any realistic chance of maturing. Pakistan’s Army chief, Gen. Ashfaq Parvez Kayani, the most important player in the country, is not expected to countenance President Asif Zardari for long. Will the Army seek to take over? Will the ruling PPP split if Prime Minister Yousaf Raza Gilani unhitches himself from Mr Zardari in the hope of being permitted to continue by the Army? Will the Army mend fences with Muslim League (Nawaz)? These and similar questions may be expected to beleaguer the country.
“Memogate”, above all, highlights the precarious — almost medieval — nature of Pakistan’s politics. Fearing a military coup against him after Osama bin Laden was killed by US special forces in May, Mr Zardari sent a secret letter to former US joint chiefs of staff chairman Mike Mullen. In it, he promised the US that Pakistan would go after anti-US militants if Washington helped him replace the present military and intelligence leadership in Rawalpindi. This is no different from inviting foreign powers to play a role in a country’s domestic affairs, as in times past. The suggestion was deeply unrealistic. It underscored Mr Zardari’s own political weakness. Not surprisingly, Adm. Mullen just let the note lie. To curry favour with Pakistan’s military, Washington subsequently even got the memo leaked to the media. Given the uncertainties inbuilt in the situation, New Delhi must keep its guard up, should extremist elements seek to take advantage and trigger anti-India moves in Islamabad.