Has Maya got the mojo for majority?

Every year on October 31 we pay homage to Indira Gandhi. However, with time the intensity associated with the observance weakens; power game of the present era leaves very little time for absorbing the lessons of the past. Indira Gandhi was the last “mass leader” who could generate a national wave. After a humiliating defeat in 1977, she stormed back to power in 1980, and in 1985 her tragic death generated a political tsunami in her memory, which gave a record 409 seats to the Congress in the Lok Sabha in 1985. But as coalition governments replace the traditional one-party majority scenario, the era of supreme leaders who can win an election on their own is over.

Since 1989 we have had two decades of coalition governance. There was a glimmer of hope in 2009 that majority rule may return as the Congress secured 206 seats in the 15th Lok Sabha. But the situation has deteriorated rather sharply. As we head for five Assembly elections in 2012 — Uttar Pradesh, Punjab, Uttarakhand, Manipur and Goa — we see a fragile situation at the Centre, where the confidence level necessary for any forward move is missing and the mood is negative. Prime Minister Manmohan Singh had made strong statements defending the petrol hike but a week later the prices were reduced by `2.22 while the rupee slid and crude prices showed little movement.
Uttar Pradesh chief minister Mayawati faces anti-incumbency trends but, like J. Jayalalithaa in Tamil Nadu and Mamata Banerjee in West Bengal, is clear where her priorities lie. While you may agree or disagree with Ms Mayawati’s motives she knows her politics and implements it quickly and is not constrained in her decision-making by coteries, advisers or powerbrokers.
Recent Assembly elections have shown how Nitish Kumar and the JD(U)/BJP decimated the Opposition. We saw the same trend in Tamil Nadu as the AIADMK won a record victory and in West Bengal the Trinamul Congress demolished the Left after a record tenure. Ms Mayawati and her BSP last time won a near majority that few had predicted. Can she do it again?
Elections are not won or lost on a single issue. While inflation and corruption are valid issues, religion and caste continue to be very important. Ms Mayawati’s decision to slice Uttar Pradesh into four states is not new but is well timed. She seems to have achieved her objective – she has shown that the Congress speaks in two voices, the SP is bewildered and the BJP has been clean bowled!

The current global crisis is triggering several political, financial and social events across the US, the UK and Europe and we should watch these moves very carefully, especially in countries where Indian interests are involved. We have just seen a positive move in Australia where Prime Minister Julia Gillard revokes the ban on uranium sales to India.
Global events generate political and social changes and the current economic crisis will do the same as election time approaches in the US. While the “Occupy Wall Street” protesters have been evicted from Zuccotti Park, they have not been silenced. Most have, in fact, returned to the site and the billionaire mayor of New York has a problem on his hands. The middle class and the poor are up in arms across the Western world. Germany, France, Spain and Portugal are witnessing violent protests and you can well imagine the situation being faced in Romania, Poland, Bulgaria and Czechoslovakia as food inflation rises and income levels decline. We are seeing a return to “protectionist” policies and new “immigration” rules reflect a Right swing. We may witness more political tremors in many countries in Europe.
We have our own financial problems as the rupee depreciates to a 32 month low and it’s no surprise that finance minister Pranab Mukherjee on November 16 gave the RBI a nudge when he said that the central bank would intervene in the forex market “as and when necessary”. The deficit increases alarmingly as exports decline, and all this is vitiated by a new political crisis every week.
The Manipur blockade continues well beyond 100 days and the situation in Telangana needs no elaboration. After the Prime Minister’s observation ruling out any hasty decision to resolve the Telangana issue, another round of agitation in the state is inevitable. We hear disturbing news from West Bengal where the Maoists, spurning the conciliatory gestures made by the chief minister, killed two Trinamul Congress party workers. This criminal act will attract retribution. Ms Banerjee has shown her firm intent of quelling the insurgency.
The Malegaon verdict is very welcome, whereby seven accused have been released. But this is a very serious issue as “seven innocents” were kept in jail for five years. Something is very wrong with the system that allows this to happen. Punitive action is necessary against those responsible for this mess. This is not an issue of majority or minority interests but the credibility of the state to render justice. I am aware that several similar cases exist but there is always a single incident, a single event that rouses our conscience and as we try to shake off the shackles of the past for a better future it is time to act.

The writer is a former Union minister