Election eye

Uttar Pradesh, India’s most populous state, will demand public attention for the next few months as the battle seems set for the 2012 Assembly elections. This may well be the decisive battle as it will peep into the trends for the 2014 general elections too. At this stage, it is difficult to foretell which party will get a majority.

I feel the upcoming election will be very different from the one that took place in 2007 and the Lok Sabha polls in 2009. The voters in the state are aware of their electoral muscle and they are wise enough to know that their vote will have an impact beyond the borders of Uttar Pradesh. Uttar Pradesh chief minister and BSP supremo Mayawati is trying hard to keep her rainbow alliance in place. For this, she will use every trick in the book to convert the anti-incumbency trends into a positive. But this will not be easy.
Ms Mayawati’s move to split Uttar Pradesh into four smaller states was not surprising. Also, the 10-minute Assembly voice vote that passed the above-mentioned resolution did not come as a surprise. The violent reaction of the SP and the BJP will only help the BSP as it will divert attention from the corruption charges the Mayawati government faces. The Congress will do well to keep silent on this issue. While this may not be the final picture, in an emotive situation it is always better to wait and watch.
Timing is crucial in every political battle. This is the time for limited engagement as the main battle is months away and it is difficult for all the political parties to keep the momentum going. We will have several surveys on the situation in Uttar Pradesh, but during two visits to the state I found that it is far too early to arrive at any conclusion. Every constituency in the state is a mini battlefield. The good thing is the quality of the political battle we are witnessing. One must always have respect for his/her opponents on a personal basis.
Ms Mayawati is a leader and she leads from the front, but I would not underestimate the efforts of either Congress general secretary Rahul Gandhi or the SP’s Akhilesh Yadav. We have seen a skirmish or two but the main battle is yet to begin. Leaders like Ms Mayawati, Mr Gandhi and Mr Yadav have a 20-year-plus career in politics and this is good for the state’s electorate. It can now test its leaders. Mr Gandhi is being underestimated and this is good for him.
The Congress’ 2007 Assembly tally of 20 seats was deplorable but the 22-seat effort in the 2009 general elections in the Lok Sabha was a “miracle”. Going by this trend, Congress bagging 80-100 Assembly seats cannot be ruled out. Mr Gandhi is not intimidated by Ms Mayawati and shows a great deal of grit and determination. He is in tune with the changing political landscape. He has been ridiculed by a section of the media for his occasional visits to rural areas, but this is far from the ground reality and will be reflected in his political responses.
Mr Yadav, after a shaky start and his wife’s byelection defeat, has recovered well. When it comes to leading the SP, he shows promise and finds acceptability in the SP cadres too. The sharp decline of the party has been arrested and will be swiftly forgiven as SP chief Mulayam Singh Yadav and his brothers yield space to the younger generation.
When parties are set for electoral battles one cannot help but think of the huge amount of money involved. Every Assembly seat — with four major parties — could well see a direct expenditure of `5 crore. This is taking into account the average cost at `1 crore each. All this would translate into a total expenditure of `2,000 crore. We talk endlessly of corruption and the Lokpal Bill, but when there is no transparency in political donations no party can take the moral high ground. Can anyone in our legal system do anything to stop the current system of anonymous “public donations”?
The system has not changed in the last 60 years and all of us who have contested elections have committed an illegality. No one is exempt. For politicians, integrity is determined by personal assets, but the fact remains that cash collections only come to those in the upper echelons of power. Everyone is aware of the problem and, sadly, everyone is helpless to deal with the situation. The formation of a criminal mafia in political life has started challenging political authority.

Social activist Anna Hazare’s announcement that he will not visit the five states going to polls is a wise decision. Clearly, this is the end of Team Anna. It is sad, but necessary, and even Mr Hazare cannot be allowed to take public opinion for granted. Should we pay any attention to the proposal to whip all those who drink alcohol?
We are not immune from global pressures and, after a decade of high GDP growth, we are going to slip to seven per cent and lower. This will affect every part of our existence. The UPA government is under pressure. The food inflation and corruption issues have weakened a shaky coalition and all this may well be reflected in the electoral battles in the five states.
The Congress is not badly placed in Punjab, Uttarakhand or in Manipur. In Goa the only winner will be the mining lobby and all eyes will be turned towards Uttar Pradesh. We still have a few months to the elections and it is time for Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and his dream team of economic experts to save us from an economic nightmare.

The situation in Egypt is explosive as discontent spreads rapidly. After Libya many expected the harsh regime in Syria to fall but the events in Cairo’s Tahrir Square indicate a regime change; the Army has very little option but to yield power to the people. The regime change from Army rule to a democratic structure will take many forms and will vary from country to country. Like Europe, we could be looking at close to a decade to allow things to settle.

The writer is a former Union minister