Where are the magic solutions?

There is no dearth of issues to be resolved as the New Year approaches. In addition to inflation, the Lokpal Bill, black money stashed in Swiss banks and the usual issue of vote-bank politics, we now have the issue of FDI in retail. The

timing of the government’s decision to allow FDI in the sector — 51 per cent in multi-brand retail and 100 per cent in single-brand retail — is difficult to understand. My understanding is that besides the Congress itself, the UPA allies and many in the Opposition need greater clarity on the issue as few will go beyond rhetoric in order to score debating points in election times.
We have had a difficult economic situation in 2011. This is different from the chaos of 2008. This time there is social unrest with protests visible across the US, the UK and many parts of Europe, Asia and Africa. We have seen regime changes in Ireland, Iceland, Greece, Italy, Spain, Tunisia, Egypt and Libya. As the US goes into an election year like many others in Europe, everyone is looking for “magic solutions”. There is little doubt that both China and India will be prime targets, but I see this not as a negative but a positive. It is no secret that the FDI pressure comes from the US and Europe and there is nothing wrong in this. I am sure we will also present our wish list when the time comes. This kind of give and take is par for the course in global trade.
Change is inevitable and it is taking place around us. We see the Big Bazaar model spreading across metro cities and many tier-one towns where medium and small business establishments are learning to live with each other. This delicate balance must be encouraged. We must debate the issue. It is no surprise that UPA allies, including the Trinamul Congress, the DMK, and even the Kerala Congress, oppose FDI in retail as do the BJP, the Left parties, BSP, SP, Telugu Desam Party, AIADMK and the Biju Janata Dal. Spirited efforts by Union commerce minister Anand Sharma and full-page advertisements to canvass support for the move are not enough. I don’t think FDI in retail in the current form will cover more than 15-20 cities and I think this is a blessing in disguise as all the positives and negatives will surface within the first few years. If the outcome is positive, Indian enterprise will take over.
I still remember the hysteria associated with Coke and Pepsi. Look how our packaged industry has flourished and the humble “potato chip” is available at every village shop in India. Pepsi may still have a good market share but look into any store and you will find hundreds of brands on the racks. It would be instructive to see the export figures of Haldiram in the US. The Cold War view of the “evil MNC” is no longer valid. Indian MNCs have held their ground and provided goods and services that match the global best. I would personally support FDI in retail — we need the technology, we need the experience, and I have little doubt that within a decade we can “export” our own model of the “ideal MNC”.
The government, however, has got its timing wrong. I find it difficult to believe that an issue that has been discussed for the past one year was such a secret. I think most of those opposed are going with the flow of public opinion, which, in the absence of adequate information, can be negative. Parliament has not functioned for the seventh day and I am not sure if this will become a major issue in the Assembly elections due in early 2012.

We have had a great deal of shadow boxing between the National Conference (NC) and the Army on the issue of the Armed Forces (Special Powers) Act in Jammu and Kashmir and I know from experience that the Army itself is reluctant to stay beyond a period of time. But in special situations there are very few options. Jammu and Kashmir has a strong NC-Congress government and a strong Opposition in the People’s Democratic Party (PDP). Both chief minister Omar Abdullah of the NC and Opposition leader Mehbooba Mufti of the PDP have three decades of effective politics ahead of them and this is good for the state. The Congress is also in a favourable position as it can align with either side, which it has done in the past, while the BJP, with a base only in Jammu, will have difficulty with both the NC and the PDP.
We have had little progress in relations with Pakistan on 26/11 but there is positive news from the security forces as the Delhi police has arrested six militants on the suspicion of having carried out three major terror attacks — Pune’s German Bakery blasts in September 2010, the Jama Masjid blast in Delhi and serial bombs outside Bengaluru’s Chinnaswamy Stadium in April 2010. This sleeper module of the militants will yield valuable information and should yield further leads with every arrest, including information about sleeper cells and “safe houses”. No doubt our ground capability and intelligence have improved dramatically since 26/11 and the results are visible.
With the shroud of secrecy necessary in these operations, the police rarely gets the credit it deserves. Sleeper cells are very difficult to locate and this investigation took the police to three states. Look at the amount of arms and ammunition recovered, including explosives, and what is the punishment that the law permits to deal with those who gave these killers sanctuary in “safe houses”?

The writer is a former Union minister