When it comes to politics, Pakistan is a house of mirrors. So there’s no knowing what’s really afoot, which parties are playing the military’s game, and if there are top leaders within parties who are playing a double-game — batting for the Army in the hope of future rewards while pretending otherwise.
In such a setting, it causes no surprise that Pakistan is awash with rumours of a “soft coup” after President Asif Ali Zardari’s departure for Dubai on Tuesday for a heart checkup. However, more than there has been in a long time, this time there are “grounds” — which in this case means an “alibi” — for the all-powerful Army, which has ruled the country over half the time since 1947, to push out the elected President.
Mr Zardari had annoyed Gen. Ashfaq Parvez Kayani inordinately in the wake of what has come to be known as “Memogate”, a sordid affair in which Mr Zardari allegedly sought the help of the United States to forestall a possible military coup by replacing the Army and ISI bosses. Pakistan’s ambassador to Washington Husain Haqqani was sent packing as a consequence. Speculation abounded about when Mr Zardari’s turn might come. It won’t be a pretty picture if the Army muscles into the President’s house. More likely, it will usher in a pliable civilian if a coup is what’s on its mind. As for India, Mr Zardari was not hostile to it. But it is the Army that has always counted anyway.