Whatever the induction of Rashtriya Lok Dal leader Ajit Singh into the Manmohan Singh government on Sunday might mean for the Congress Party’s electoral chances in the coming Assembly elections in Uttar Pradesh, it is evident that the DMK group does not think the time is yet propitious for its return to the Union council of ministers. This must leave the Congress-led ruling front feeling somewhat insecure at a time when it is under sustained attack from the Opposition parties on a range of issues, and also subject to regular sniping by one of its allies, the Trinamul Congress.
DMK ministers had pulled out of the Congress-led government when former communications minister A. Raja came under suspicion in the 2G scandal and relations between the DMK and the Congress nosedived at the time of Assembly polls in Tamil Nadu earlier this year. The jailing of DMK supremo M. Karunanidhi’s daughter Kanimozhi under a Supreme Court directive compounded matters. Naturally, with Ms Kanimozhi’s recent release from prison, speculation was rife that the DMK would once again nominate its ministers to the UPA-2 government. If this has not happened, the internal politics within Tamil Nadu on the Koodankulam nuclear power plant issue (where the ruling AIADMK and the DMK are both trying to appease the anti-nuclear protesters), and the recent Tamil Nadu-Kerala discord on the Mullaperiyar Dam issue (with the Congress heading the ruling front in Kerala) are likely to provide some answers. Since neither problem would appear to go away in a hurry, the shadow of doubt on Congress-DMK relations could persist, leaving intact the vulnerability of the UPA-2 coalition vis-à-vis the Opposition.
The entry of Ajit Singh on the Congress side is unlikely to solve this conundrum as the RLD’s strength in the Lok Sabha is negligible. For the RLD agreeing to bat alongside the Congress in the keenly watched UP Assembly polls, Mr Singh has been handed the attractive portfolio of civil aviation. This makes the Congress-RLD link as tawdry as all other similar deals that are based on expediency alone. The RLD chief is a much-travelled man, as far as the political terrain goes, and is capable of switching alliances at the drop of a hat. His party’s current influence in western UP is also a matter of conjecture. The RLD’s showing in the last general election cannot inspire confidence. But the fact of the alliance could help the Congress with the Muslim vote. Also, the dominant Jat farmer community of western UP has not had a proper representation at the Centre for a long time. If Mr Ajit Singh finds votes returning to him for this reason, the Congress will also reap some dividends from this association.