The coming Assembly elections in the five states of Uttar Pradesh, Punjab, Uttarakhand, Manipur and Goa — stretching from January 28 to March 3 in the coming year — will be looked upon with considerable interest by the major players in the system. Uttar Pradesh is India’s largest state in population terms, and in terms of the seats in its state Assembly. It therefore usually draws great attention. The outcome of the Assembly polls in this state can change the balance of parties in the Rajya Sabha more than other states can. In the Upper House of Parliament, the ruling UPA is on the back foot as it is in a minority. If the Congress nets more seats in the UP legislature than it has now, and improves its tally in the other states, the UPA can overcome many uncertainties in the Rajya Sabha.
Should the opposite scenario prevail, the ruling party’s political stock would take a knock. The Congress has already suffered all of this year on account of corruption allegations, and the perception of governance paralysis. Some of this has owed to its inability to keep all its allies on the same page on crucial policy parameters, such as FDI in retail. An overall creditable showing in the state elections early in the new year will act as a political booster to the ruling party. There is another aspect to be considered. Some of the woes of the Congress are attributable to the high decibel campaign of the Anna Hazare group, which has targeted it specifically. A good showing in the five states, particularly UP, is likely to negate the political effects of the Hazare front. If not, it is as good as certain that the so-called anti-corruption crusade will gain in stridency and momentum and take the BJP forward in the race for the Lok Sabha election of 2014. This facet of the forthcoming Assembly polls, particularly the one in UP, lends the election a political significance that may otherwise have been absent.
The Election Commission, which announced the five elections on Saturday, has decided to conduct the UP polls in seven phases so that sufficient security is available in all polling regions and the balloting is free and fair. Even for UP, this appears unusual. The new scheme suggests that keen contests are expected and some may be tempted to resort to unfair means. Several political reputations may also be on the line — prominent among them chief minister Mayawati, her bete noire Rahul Gandhi and Mulayam Singh Yadav’s son Akhilesh Yadav, who is trying to be the youth icon for the Samajwadi Party. There is thus enough star power around to keep the pundits engaged.