A satrap plans siege of Centre

The past few months have indicated that West Bengal chief minister Mamata Banerjee is one of the canniest politicians in India at present. She turns 57 on January 5. In a country where geriatrics still wield relatively greater influence and power, she has displayed instincts that are astute beyond her years. She has demonstrated that she possesses ruthless abilities to arm-twist her bigger partners in ways which few could have imagined, leave alone anticipated. She has shown that behind her apparently whimsical persona lurks a political animal that waits for her stronger quarry to show signs of weakness before striking to wound, not kill.

When the chief minister sprang an unpleasant surprise on Prime Minister Manmohan Singh in September by refusing to accompany him to Dhaka, her critics roundly condemned her action as unbecoming of the post she was occupying. Going beyond the 48:52 formula for sharing the waters of the River Teesta, Ms Banerjee’s actions were compared to those of a petulant child throwing tantrums. Worse, she was seen as ungrateful for it was Sheikh Hasina Wajed who was among the first to congratulate her when her party was swept to power in May last year, overturning 34 years of rule in the state by the Left Front led by the CPI(M). Was there a method in her so-called madness?
Even when the Union Cabinet decided on December 1 to allow the entry of foreign direct investment (FDI) in multi-brand retail, it was evident that the government should not depend on the support of the Trinamul Congress for this controversial move. Railway minister Dinesh Trivedi’s absence from the Cabinet meeting should have made this clear to the Prime Minister. Nevertheless, Dr Singh pushed through the proposal and ended up with more than egg on his face. The government’s credibility was battered on an issue that was rather close to the Prime Minister’s heart — he had sought to sell the decision to allow FDI in multi-brand retail as a catch-all solution to many of the country’s pressing problems. Dr Singh had claimed that the likes of Walmart and Tesco would lower food prices, result in more remunerative prices to farmers by removing middlemen, reduce rotting of vegetables and fruits and, above all, create more jobs — all rather laudable goals which no politician in his/her right senses should have opposed. But the Cabinet decision had to be placed in cold storage in the midst of the capital’s freezing winter not on account of the political Opposition on the Right and the Left but because of the strident opposition of Ms Banerjee’s party. Finance minister Pranab Mukherjee had to sheepishly acknowledge in public that the choice before the government was FDI in retail or early general elections.
Economic indicators are rather dismal at present. The government exists but governance is in a state of paralysis. The question being asked over and over again is whether the government will complete its full term of five years. And this question is being raised despite the all-too-apparent weaknesses of the BJP (still unsure about who will succeed L.K. Advani as the boss of the party) as well as the Communists (who are yet to recover from the ignominious defeat inflicted on them by Ms Banerjee).
Yet, despite the fact that the overwhelming majority of the 543 MPs in the current Lok Sabha are hardly looking forward to mid-term polls, the ebb and flow of Indian politics have strange ways of surprising the most prescient of observers. Who could have imagined that the country’s youngest-ever Prime Minister who commanded the biggest-ever majority for his party in the lower House of Parliament in December 1984 would end up becoming a lame-duck head of government a few years later and then lose power to a shortlived Right-Left combine headed by his former confidant? One is not arguing that 1989 will be repeated soon.
But what cannot be denied is that there are at least a few important politicians who would be far from displeased if early elections take place. They include three women and one elderly gentleman. The chief ministers of Uttar Pradesh, West Bengal and Tamil Nadu all believe their respective political parties could stand to gain if UPA-2 does not complete its full term which ends in May 2014. No prizes for guessing the name of the octogenarian who allegedly still nurtures prime ministerial ambitions.
Ms Banerjee’s party’s somersault on the Lokpal Bill falls into a pattern. There are many in the Congress who nurture hopes of supporting a Samajwadi Party-led government in Lucknow. The outcome of the Assembly elections in India’s most-populous state will be known on March 4. But if the dreams of the Congress turn into reality, the Trinamul Congress could become dispensable in New Delhi, especially if the SP with its 22 MPs — three more than the Trinamul’s 19 — decides to join the UPA.
Ms Banerjee clearly does not expect this to take place. That’s a risk she has taken. And if her calculations are correct, then the tail will continue to wag the dog in India’s topsy-turvy world of coalition politics. This gambit may not backfire on her the way her flip-flop between the BJP and the Congress did in 2001. The buzz in Kolkata is that Ms Banerjee’s party intends putting up many candidates in the forthcoming elections to the Uttar Pradesh Assembly (as she had done in Assam and other north-eastern states).
Won’t these candidates further fragment votes in Uttar Pradesh’s already-fragmented polity? Why would the All-India Trinamul Congress want to do that? Is Ms Banerjee tired of being described as a regional satrap? Unlike her counterpart from Tamil Nadu, whose party’s name also begins with the “All-India” tag, is Ms Banerjee serious about living up to what the full version of the name of her political party would literally signify?
Time alone can tell if the trajectory of the career of one of India’s and South Asia’s few (perhaps, only) female political leaders — who has risen through the ranks without the assistance of a father, brother, husband or mentor — will continue to rise. For the time being, however, she’s smiling all the way to the next round of polls, unfazed by hospital and hooch tragedies.

The writer is an educator and commentator