The rising tensions between Iran and the United States does not augur well. International oil prices have begun to move north after Iran displayed its capability to fire an anti-ship cruise missile on Monday.
Tehran has warned that if the US and its allies impose sanctions, it will make the world pay in financial terms. This is doubtless a way to put pressure on Washington to back off. If the US does not desist, Tehran threatens to blockade the Strait of Hormuz through which 20 per cent of the world’s oil passes. A blockage cannot but have an adverse impact on the international economy, reinforcing the negative effects of the recessionary conditions in Europe and the dampened economic mood in the US.
Given the overall picture in the West Asian theatre, including the predisposition of America’s closest Arab allies against Iran, and the domestic political scene in the US in an election year which may just tempt President Barack Obama to flex military muscle against Iran in order to consolidate a section of the home constituency that might be sitting on the fence, the Iran situation moving closer to the precipice cannot be entirely ruled out. If this comes about, the regional situation in both West Asia and South Asia is likely to be affected. If Iran is militarily attacked, Pakistan’s position in the context of Afghanistan is likely to be strengthened, and India’s worsened.
Tehran is a signatory to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), and is thus not entitled to make nuclear weapons. But it is entitled to engage in nuclear research for power and other civilian purposes. It has recently claimed to have made a nuclear fuel rod. This has further fuelled American and Western anxieties that Tehran is heading for the Bomb. In response, America is busy giving shape to a domestic law that would punish any entity in the world — governmental or private — that has a relationship with the Iranian central bank. The genuineness of US worries over an Iranian bomb can be a matter of conjecture. Some calculate that Washington is looking for a pretext to militarily overawe Iran. This would make Israel happy, not to say its closest Arab allies to whom it has just supplied extensive military hardware. For its part, Tehran too ratchets up rhetoric. The country was financially bled in its 10-year war against Iraq.
A move to the negotiating table suggests itself, rather than US-led hectoring or Tehran’s boastful talk. The US and Iran can profitably seek mediation through a subset of the G-20. Past experience shows the US and Iran shouldn’t be left to their own devices.