In Punjab, traditional rivals Congress and Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD) are again going to fight it out in the state assembly elections on Jan. 30. The writing is already on the wall. While no government has ever had a second consecutive term in the state there are some figures and trends, which predicate that the same will hold true this January.
In the 2007 assembly election, the SAD-BJP combine managed to get 68 seats, SAD getting 49 and BJP with its best performance in the state got 19 seats, compared to the 44 of the Congress, in a house of 117.
A look at the polling percentage of the parties will show that even in the last Assembly elections Congress with around 41 percent vote share was the party with the highest vote share. SAD captured around 37 percent votes and BJP around eight percent. Even in 2009 parliamentary elections Congress managed to get eight out of the 13 seats in the state, while the SAD-BJP combine wrested 5 seats.
The fact that the BJP with its nineteen seats played a crucial role in the formation of SAD-BJP alliance government, could now be the ‘Achilles heel’ for the alliance in its endeavour to recapture power in the state.
With corruption charges being leveled against its ministers and unbridled infighting in the state unit of the BJP, even the hardcore BJP workers are not giving the party a chance to replicate the last assembly elections.
Despite SAD’s best efforts to build its campaign on developmental agenda in the assembly elections, the fact that Akali workers and Jathedars (clergy leaders) in rural areas wielded power, could now come back to haunt the party in the elections. The Congress party’s allegation that its workers were victimised by the Akali government could well turn into an election issue.
The other variables like support of the Deras (Sect headquarters) could also turn out be crucial. The Deras have significant influence in the Malwa and Doaba region of the state.
The Doaba region which has very high number of Dalit voters could play a crucial role in the formation of te next government. Doaba was traditionally considered a Congress stronghold. However, in the last elections, the BJP managed to get most of the seats here at the expense of Congress. If Congress managesto win back its citadel and all else being equal, the party may just turn the tables on the Akalis.