While most people/critics/writers analyse the year gone by, I think I’ll just up the ante by predicting what the year will be...in music. It would be too simplistic to just announce/pronounce that it will be more of the past [year], but I might as well keep my neck on the line and predict what I believe you should musically expect in 2012.
Even as most industry analysts have waived off the physical format as being obsolete, there still remains a growth area: vinyl; a format that was once a staple of most parents. Two of the larger music markets in the world — US and UK — both showed an enhancement of vinyl sales in 2011 by more than 39 per cent over the previous year. The US no. 1 vinyl album seller was none other than the same title that has been the top seller for the last two years, The Beatles’ Abbey Road and, for the curious, the top selling vinyl artistes of the year included Jimi Hendrix, Bob Dylan and, of course, The Beatles. Yes, indeed, this trend is not only going to continue during the New Year, but 2012 will show a record growth in this format.
In support, a dwindling market for retail outlets will receive an unexpected boost with this vinyl growth as the number of independent record stores i.e. not associated with “chains”, where some two-thirds of vinyl sales occur, will almost certainly increase in the key music markets abroad. More good news arrives for the rock buff like me; three out of four vinyls sold contained music from the rock genre and the ratio will be skewed further towards rock, as reissues of classic albums get launched in 2012, and the ongoing fashion for retro or vintage items remains the flavour of the year.
While digital is the future — downloaded album sales were up by almost 27 per cent in the UK and by 20 per cent in the US — CDs are slowly declining with an almost 13 per cent slump over the previous year in the UK and 6 per cent in the US.
Okay, enough of statistics. What about tours? While India had her fair share of international acts performing last year — whether it was for public or in private — such as, Metallica, Prodigy, Akon, Pitbull, Shakira, and Lady Gaga, there is still no news of any big ticket act scheduled to appear in India during 2012, barring DJ David Guetta covering New Delhi, Bengaluru, and Mumbai in March. Outside the country, artistes are making monies the old fashioned way i.e. performing live gigs.
So will this trend continue into the New Year? Most certainly yes, with rockers Van Halen reuniting with original vocalist David Lee Roth, Bruce Springsteen continuing to rock the world with his E Street Band, Rolling Stones rumoured to be gearing for yet another 18-month or so global tour to celebrate their 50 years in the rock and roll business, the Beach Boys doing the same i.e. celebrating their 50th anniversary, by reuniting with founder Brian Wilson, and Bob Dylan — who I was fortunate to see perform live in Singapore in April 2011 — continuing to tour globally as he has been doing since 1988!
Let’s not forget that rock fans will also see a reunion of the original line-up of Black Sabbath, Metallica celebrates their 30th anniversary, and Rod Stewart moves away from the American Songbook and returns to the genre he knows best: rock. The Eagles celebrate their 40th anniversary for an umpteenth Farewell Tour this year, and there remains hope that some of the original members of Guns N Roses will reunite with vocalist Axl Rose during the band’s induction into the Rock And Roll Of Fame. I hope the multitude of reunited classic rockers decide to treat India as part of their live tour agenda during the New Year...
So, there, now that I have my predictions for the music world off my chest, I can relax...probably only until a year down the line, before I monitor how much of my soothsaying has turned out to be true...
The writer has been part of the media and entertainment business for over 23 years, still continues to pursue his hobby, and earns an income out of it!