Talk of a change in the composition of the Congress-led UPA and the BJP-led NDA after the Uttar Pradesh Assembly election has begun in the political circles.
The absence of a third alternative, popularly called a third front, will compel the non-Congress parties like the Biju Janta Dal, the Telugu Desam Party and the INLD to join the NDA under a secular leader. The AIADMK too may work with this non-Congress front.
The BSP too could be forced to change its strategy if it fails to retain power in UP. Temperamentally, it cannot work under any Front and always plays its cards after elections. But if the Samajwadi Party moves closer to the Congress and shares power with the latter in UP, then Ms Mayawati will also have to review the strategy, viewed a senior leader and a former MP.
Currently, the Trinamul Congress is giving conflicting signals to the Congress. It has fielded candidates against it in UP, Uttarakhand, Manipur and Goa and is backing some Independent candidates in Punjab. And in West Bengal, the Trinamul Congress’ primary objective is the check of the Congress in the battle for space.
The Mamata Banerjee-led party has been taking independent stands on policy issues at the Centre despite being part of it. It wants to grow outside West Bengal and likes to play a key role at the national level.
A Congress-SP’s proximity could compel the Trinamul Congress to quit the UPA, insiders viewed. The Trinamul Congress had worked with the NDA while Ms Mayawati became UP chief minister twice on the support of the BJP.
In a such a scenario, the RJD and the LJP can rejoin the UPA under the pretext of checking communal forces. And the anti-communalism plank will bring the SP, the Left closer to the Congress Party.
The DMK, the RLD and the Janata Dal(S) have worked both the Congress and the BJP.
The result of the Assembly elections in five states could compel the BJP to review its strategy and change its language irrespective of its performance.
The Congress’ objective is to come to power at the Centre on its own. If it goes ahead with this line then the NCP, the DMK and the Trinamul Congress will have to formulate their strategy. The process of polarisation may begin in the Presidential election in July 2012, sources said.