There is talk that the vote banks of all major political parties are witnessing a split in the poll bound Uttar Pradesh where rival parties are playing various cards to emerge as a winner.
A Samajwadi Party leader camping in UP said the election this time is different from the past as Muslims, brahmins, Thakurs and OBCs are unlikely to vote en block in this battle.
Dalits should vote for the BSP if one goes by their track record and the decisions taken by the chief minister Mayawati. But it does not mean that other parties will not get any dalit votes, viewed leaders of different parties.
Muslim votes will be split into three major parties — SP, BSP and the Congress — while brahmins will be divided between the Congress and the BJP. Among the OBCs, non Yadav votes will split among the BSP, the Congress and the BJP. However, the SP can get some votes. “It all depends on the candidates and his or her election machinery,” another leader pointed out.
The Congress’ position is certainly improving and perhaps it can play a key role in the post poll situation, a non Congress leader said. Voting pattern could be settled in the seven-phased polling after the second or third phase, that is between February 11 and 15.
Absence of an emotive issue like Ayodhya or Mandal has made the battle more interesting this time.
If draping statues of the BSP’s election symbol, Elephant, in UP could consolidate dalits, this will not help Ms Mayawati to retain her party’s numbers in the state legislative Assembly. The Congress has played the reservation card for minorities and the BJP is optimistic of retaining its hold among non Yadav OBCs, upper castes.
The Congress is pegging its hopes on floating voters and Rahul Gandhi’s aggressive campaign on the “Uttar Pradesh Pride”.