Pakistan is under US pressure to clear the militant hub of North Waziristan on the Afghan border, a bastion of Afghan Taliban factions where allied Pakistani militants, Al Qaeda and other foreigners also operate.
The attempted car bombing in New York’s Times Square has refocused international attention on the ethnic Pastun tribal region which no government has ever fully controlled. Lieutenant General Sardar Mahmood Ali Khan, deputy chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff said his forces would take action in North Waziristan when adequate resources were available. Here are some scenarios for how events could unfold.
A LIMITED CAMPAIGN
This is most likely. Pakistan already has a sizeable troop presence in North Waziristan, most in heavily fortified positions in the main town of Miranshah. This allows the military to focus its fire on its most dangerous enemies among the various factions there. This would satisfy the US to an extent and when US pressure builds, the Pakistani Army could intensify its operations. The Army can tailor its operations and respond to events as they unfold both at home and in Afghanistan. The Afghan factions could perhaps be pressed to enter talks in Afghanistan or even to hand over or isolate Pakistani Taliban or foreign fighters.
PAKISTAN LAUNCHES A FULL-SCALE OFFENSIVE
This is not likely although this is what the US and Afg-hanistan would like to see. The Pakistani military has said there will be no “steam-roller” operation in North Waziristan, as there have been in places such as Swat, northwest of Islamabad, and South Waziristan. The Army says it is consolidating gains made in places such as South Waziristan, Bajaur and Swat, where there have been signs the militants are trying to stage a comeback, and its resources are limited.
A full-scale offensive would also mean taking on the Afghan Taliban factions which have not been attacking the Pakistani state. Pakistan’s fundamental security concern is the perceived danger from India and analysts say Pakistan sees the Afghan Taliban factions as tools for its long-term objectives in Afghanistan, where it wants a friendly Kabul government and keep a check on Indian influence. Pakistan also believes that with US forces due to begin withdrawing from Afghanistan in 2011, the Americans will soon be out, perhaps after some sort of a negotiated deal with the Taliban. So Pakistan would loathe to make enemies now of the only Afghan factions over which it has influence.
A full-scale offensive also carries risk for the government of a country where anti-US sentiment runs high. Heavy military and/or civilian casualties in fighting against factions not attacking Pakistan would bolster those who already say Pakistan is a US puppet fighting a US war. Morale in the arm-ed forces could be undermined and militants would scatter across the northwest and into Afghanistan. Some could slip back to their homes and launch attacks.
PAKISTAN DOES NOTHING
This is also not likely. Many Pakistani Taliban fighters waging war against the state have fled from Army offensives in South Waziristan and elsewhere in the northwest to North Waziristan from where they plot bomb attacks on the security forces and government and foreign targets across the country. The Army and the civilian government know that eliminating those militants is key to ending the violence. Doing nothing would also infuriate the US and strain Pakistan’s relationship with its biggest aid donor. The US, struggling in Afghanistan, would step up its attacks by pilotless drones and could even send in ground troops. That would enrage Pakistan and could severe ties. Pakistan could throw the US operation in Afghanistan into que-stion by shutting down supply routes running through Pakistan along which passes a large volume of US military supplies, from drinking water to fuel.