2012 Assembly polls analysis: Wake up call for national parties

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The people have delivered their verdict and before the 2014 General elections, the message is loud and clear – a wake up call for the national parties.

As the current trend indicates, Samajwadi Party is likely to form a Government of its own in Uttar Pradesh and even if it does not, it can always get the support of some rebels who won, some independents and some smaller groups. SP is clearly not dependent on the Congress for forming the Government.

Several factors have contributed to the SP’s kitty, anti-incumbency being just one of them. The Upper Caste or Brahmin vote which had aligned with the Bahujan Samaj Party enabling it to form a Government of its own, failed to work this time.

The ‘Social Engineering’ flopped though Chief Minister Mayawati rehabilitated the party’s Brahmin face Satish Mishra and gave tickets to large number of Brahmins as the community felt that the development, if any, was confined to Ambedkar villages and perceived as provocative and wasteful the lavish spending on statues of Dalit icons.

Added to that was the Dalit leader’s total disconnect with the masses, communication gap with the media and growing dependence on a motley crowd of bureaucrats and sycophants.

On the other hand, the Congress concentrated solely on the Muslim card and this last minute rhetoric and aggressive wooing only proved counterproductive. The party, which till date, never took cognizance of the Sachar Committee Report or implemented the Rangnath Mishra Commission report was suddenly concerned about their plight. Statements about UPA Chairperson Sonia Gandhi weeping over the Batla House encounter victims, though later clarified, only served to distance the community further besides alienating the majority Hindus as well.

The BJP, on its part, was a deeply divided house, seeking to cash in on the popularity of an 'imported leader' even as it ignored its own charismatic state leaders such as Varun Gandhi. The party’s poster boy Narendra Modi avoided the state altogether exposing the chinks in its armour. The Kushwaha episode also did not add to its credibility.

Apart from restoring its credibility among Muslims, who had divorced Mulayam after his 'unholy' alliance with Kalyan Singh, the credit for SP’s performance also goes to the emergence of Akhilesh Yadav as a leader to reckon with, one of the major highlights of this election. With his earthy wit and style, Mulayam junior was able to charm the large number of young voters, who saw in him a fresh breeze and a future leader.

Of course, the promises of unemployment and health doles, computers and other sops also contributed immensely in adding to the SP’s kitty and if the party falters on these, the same voters would show it the door in the 2014 general elections.

An over estimation of Manpreet Badal’s ability to divide the Akalis, inability to woo Dera Sacha Sauda voters and Captain Amarinder Singh’s failure to match up to Badal senior’s stature and appeal proved to be the Congress’ undoing in Punjab while in Uttarakhand, incumbent B.C. Khanduri’s image appears to have saved the day for BJP. Much would also depend on how BSP would play its cards in the state.

Absence of a credible opposition and the entry of Naga People’s Front helped the consolidation in favour of the ruling Congress in Manipur while the massive corruption seems to have queered the pitch for the party in Goa.

Of course, the civil society activists or the anti-corruption movement launched by them also hurt the Congress across the country.

Congress would certainly be on the backfoot, particularly ahead of the Rajya Sabha and Presidential elections later this year.

The BJP too would do well not to rest on laurels if it retains Uttarakhand and Punjab and wrests Goa from Congress. The results in electorally crucial Uttar Pradesh shows it has miles to go before the Lok Sabha elections in 2014. Dilli Door Ast.

As for Congress, it is time for serious introspection. Otherwise they would end up the ‘India Shining’ way.

K.G. Suresh is a Delhi-based senior journalist and Editor, Critique