The assembly elections results in five states may not have an instant impact on the United Progressive Alliance at the Centre in terms of number game, but has certainly dented the ability of the Congress-led alliance’s maneuverability on the policy front.
Even the aspirations to have a majority in the Rajya Sabha on its own has dimmed, as the Congress failed to improve its numbers in almost all the states. The ruling Congress will also feel the number pinch during upcoming presidential elections.
Doubting the assessments in some quarters that the results will adversely impact the UPA at the Centre, a senior Congress leader said, “What change or impact are you looking at? The existing combination at the Centre remains unchanged, as the SP, which has won the elections and the BSP, which has lost in the elections, are already supporting the UPA at the Centre.”
However, contrary to the Congress leader’s view, analysts feel that no change in the number equation is the problem, as the UPA is already in trouble with “policy paralysis”, “no majority in Rajya Sabha” and looming number crunch in the upcoming presidential elections.
Many in the political circles believe that Manmohan Singh-led UPA government will definitely not see any number threat for its survival, as politically strong Samajwadi Party chief Mulayam Singh Yadav would need support of the Centre in fulfilling poll promises, whereas weakened BSP supremo Mayawati would like to keep Congress in “good humour”.
For Mulayam the other factor, which will ensure his support to the UPA, is that he would not like to be seen paving the way for BJP to capture power at the Centre.
But still, all is not well for the Congress, as it failed to capture power in Punjab and Uttrakhand and failed to retain Goa. With such results in these states will further weaken Congress in Rajya Sabha, for which biennial elections are due only this month only.
Out of the total 58 Rajya Sabha seats, which are going to poll 11 seats of Andhra Pradesh and Maharashtra are up for grab for the Congress, but at the same time its members are retiring from these states only.
The other states, which are going for biennial Rajya Sabha polls include Bihar, Odisha, Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat and Karnataka, where non-UPA, non-Congress parties are in power.
Similarly, given the strength of different political parties in state assemblies and reduced number in Rajya Sabha, Congress is least likely to impose its candidate for the President’s post.