The defeat and after

Unlike UPA-1, whose steady incremental achievements added up to positive vibes at the end of the five-year term and helped it slay the demon of anti-incumbency, the UPA-2 has hardly been a string of successes. For the Congress and the government it leads at the Centre, the recent Assembly election in five states were therefore of greater significance than might otherwise be the case.

What could have been normal state polls acquired a larger meaning even for the party’s leadership. An indication of this was the energetic participation in the campaign in Uttar Pradesh of Rahul Gandhi and Priyanka Gandhi Vadra, and forays by Congress president Sonia Gandhi and Prime Minister Manmohan Singh.
True, Uttar Pradesh, the country’s largest state, was important for other reasons, too. For a quarter century, with identity politics framed by caste and the religio-communal considerations moving centrestage, the Congress has been bereft of even a notional organisation in this vast backwater of India. Win or lose, it was inescapable that Mr Gandhi be there to lay the ground for his party for the next general election, to prepare the seedbed, as it were.
A win in Uttar Pradesh was unthinkable. An improved showing on the miserable last outing would be a gain, and a mid-way performance a gain to be savoured. The young Mr Gandhi was sent in as a kamikaze warrior, the fate of his mission a complete unknown. But at the back of all this was a slender hope.
Even if the Congress only came out without losing face in Uttar Pradesh, the Centre could be somewhat better managed. Should Punjab and Uttarakhand be wrested from the NDA besides, and Goa and Manipur retained, the Centre would be insulated from the little tremors caused by the Opposition and some allies, which have become a regular occurrence.
The hope has not come to fruition although the Congress’ seats and/or percentage of votes won have increased in all states save Goa, and in Manipur the party has recorded a signal triumph, winning for the third consecutive time. In a specific context, politics is not only about enhanced numbers.
A positive result would have been a booster shot for the Congress. In the event, an under-par showing is apt to have an undercutting effect. This is not to say that the negative implications likely to manifest themselves in the form of multiple — and sometimes unanticipated — pressures cannot be managed if deft hands are applied. But there are other difficulties as well.
The BJP, the principal Opposition to the UPA-2 regime, has also fared poorly on the whole, especially in Uttar Pradesh and Punjab. But this may not necessarily have a sobering effect on the party, if post-poll observations of its leaders are anything to go by. In the aftermath of the Congress’ below-the-line performance in the recent elections, the tactical aim of the main Opposition party is likely to be to try and force a Lok Sabha poll on the Congress prior to 2014.
The BJP is riven with dissensions at its top and middle levels, at the Centre and in the states. There is also a degree of disconnect between the RSS and the party’s most significant leader, Gujarat chief minister Narendra Modi, whose authoritarian and independent ways are also apparently designed to irk Nagpur and put its Hindutva monitors in their place. (A case in point was Mr Modi’s adamant refusal to campaign in Uttar Pradesh because Sanjay Joshi, a trusted RSS leader disliked by the Gujarat chief minister, was given a pivotal role in that campaign.) In spite of these factors, the BJP leadership perhaps calculates that the prospect of a mid-term poll may help it galvanise its cadres and paper over the cracks at the top.
In addition, the party would hope that such a stratagem would rattle the Congress, and keep it in an unsettled state even if the early election gambit failed to materialise.
Whether the BJP’s NDA allies can be persuaded of benefits accruing from such thinking is an open question. The country’s political chessboard is coming alive with moves and schemes and plots, with regional chieftains calculating to press for their own advantage, not necessarily in tandem with their national allies. Whatever the agendas of its political opponents, however, the Congress will be loathe to go down as the leader of a coalition that could not summon the capacity to govern for the full term.
The BJP knows this as the saffron party has itself shown deep awareness of the consideration in the past. The reason is that a relatively large party that does not have the steam to go on for a full five years does not fit the bill as the lead engine of a ruling coalition. It will put off prospective partners in a situation in which no party is deemed likely to have its own majority.
For its own good, then, the Congress is obliged to run the whole distance. But if it does so looking like a lame duck, it might as well throw in the towel now, before it is seen to come under Opposition pressure. A non-performing government will be seen as a liability for the country. Besides, not achieving would affect the party’s chances in the general election. Properly speaking, a ruling party has to think of doable schemes in the final lap that will make an impression.
In public, Congress party leaders take the theoretical — and naïve — position that the Assembly elections have not changed the configuration in the Lok Sabha in the least, hence there is no question of the government collapsing on the floor. The reality is that there is risk of the adhesive coming off after the Assembly verdict as some parties in the UPA and outside it may be tempted by the pied piper.
The Trinamul Congress turning contrary may be an ever-present risk but its 22 MPs going off with the Opposition doesn’t straightaway alter the balance. However, the cushion in the House for UPA-2 is thin. For the Congress, this underscores the need for infusing diplomacy into the proceedings not only with allies but also other parties. To begin with, an achievable minimum programme — which is seen by all partners to benefit them too, and enthuses them — is warranted.