Insecure security

I am not tired of repeating week after week that our primary objective in 2010 and in the future should be to resolve various issues that pose a threat to our internal security. Today our security situation has become rather complicated, first with the global situation after the 9/11 attack in New York and the escalating violence by extreme Left groups in India.
The situation in Pakistan is complex too, with the emergence of several power sources within the government and the Pakistani Army. Also, a very volatile situation exists in both Afghanistan and Iraq where suicide bomb blasts continue to claim lives. This chaotic situation works to the advantage of various terror groups whose networks have their own objectives.
Though the threat from constant infiltration from our western and eastern borders is real, the Indian Army and other security forces have done extremely well to contain it. The only negative factor is that many gallant officers and jawans have died defending the country. The menace of “sleeper cells”, however, continues. We do not need another human catastrophe to force the government to review and revise our archaic laws. When are we going to realise that both external and internal terror are “war” against the state and anyone who gives assistance or sanctuary in any manner should be treated as a “war criminal”?
There is no use dividing terror on “secular” and “non-secular” lines as a terrorist has no religion. As far as exploiting the security situation for electoral success is concerned, political parties must realise there are better issues at hand. We watched in horror for three days when a handful of terrorists killed and wounded hundreds of innocents in Mumbai. We have seen the protracted trial of Ajmal Kasab and no one is quite certain about the number of days it will take to hang him. Yet, look at the sudden movement and urgent interest being taken in the Afzal Guru case. Do we have to act only when public anger forces a decision? I see no point in blaming Delhi chief minister Sheila Dikshit, or anyone else, as the fact is that all political parties play to caste, majority or minority interests and the case of Afzal Guru is no different. In such situations those who are seated at the top of the decision-making apparatus must take decisions.
Our internal security situation is further complicated by the Maoists and their “dual” talk on tribal development. Dealing with the economic situation has been overtaken by the recent tragedy where 40 civilians and policemen were killed in cold blood. Prime Minister Manmohan Singh can maintain a deafening silence on the issue but a clear and decisive decision is necessary from the Cabinet Committee on Political Affairs and the Cabinet Committee on Security. Clumsy attempts to divert attention and responsibility will only attract public wrath. As things stand, the United Progressive Alliance (UPA) has the full support of the Left and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and both Union home minister P. Chidambaram and home secretary G.K. Pillai have spoken sensibly, as has Chhattisgarh chief minister Raman Singh.
Violence is never the right way to deal with a crisis but delicate negotiations cannot be conducted if those in government spill the details, or if documents keep leaking to the media. Clearly, there are far too many power centres with diverse interests.
I think we should ignore juvenile press statements given by party officials on the subject. It is the responsibility of every political party to keep in mind that security initiatives cannot and should not be discussed in the media but only within the Cabinet.

WE ARE witnessing an epic political battle in West Bengal where the Trinamul Congress, along with its ally the Congress Party, battles the Communist Party of India (Marxist). I think Mamata Banerjee and her party will win by a mile — in a situation of this nature statistics are not relevant.
In the upcoming Assembly elections in West Bengal, the Trinamul Congress and the Congress will have disputes over ticket distribution but, after a great deal of political trauma and adjustments, things will settle — Ms Banerjee will become the chief minister and the Congress in a coalition structure will adjust to ground reality.
It would be foolish to underestimate the political acumen of Ms Banerjee.
In Uttar Pradesh, Rahul Gandhi continues to make steady progress and the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) and the Samajwadi Party (SP) are both under pressure. The Congress bagged 21 seats in Uttar Pradesh in the general elections due to Mr Gandhi’s sustained efforts. The Assembly results in 2011 will be an important indicator of the future. Poll fortunes are difficult to predict but at this stage I would rank the Congress ahead of the BSP with the SP a distant third and the BJP fourth and very much in the shadows.
In Bihar, the Janata Dal-United (JD-U) suffers from internal dissent which will become more pronounced as Assembly elections draw close. The Lok Janshakti Party (LJP) and Ram Vilas Paswan seem to have faded away, leaving the JD(U)-BJP as frontrunners with the Rashtriya Janata Dal’s Lalu Prasad Yadav struggling to retain his position and sense of humour. There is little progress in the Congress’ efforts to cement a base in the state. Though the party’s initial efforts were positive, the current position is marred by strife in the cadres.
Events are warming up in Tamil Nadu where the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam family wars may force an early election in the state as the main Opposition party, the All-India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam, is not looking very stable and will have to forge a suitable alliance if it wants to make an impact on the electoral stage. This need of early elections in Tamil Nadu can trigger events in West Bengal where the Trinamul Congress is also pressing for early elections.

Arun Nehru is a former Union Minister