The Maoist move to target civilians is the second phase of their warfare strategy. While the first phase was confined to remote tribal areas, in the second phase the insurgents intend to bring the war close to the urban areas.
A senior police officer disclosed that in its’ so called “urban push”, the final phase of Maoist warfare, the insurgents would continue to target the civilians. Targeting civilians would serve three major purposes:
n Create a widespread panic and confusion in the administration.
n The government would be forced to be in a compromising position.
n Instead of targeting or launching large-scale operations against the Maoists, the government would be forced to focus on civilians and urban targets.
It may be recalled here that similar to the Dantewada incident in 2005, the Maoist blew up a bus in Nepal killing 38 civilians. Prachanda, who was underground at that juncture apologised for the “mistake”. There was complete panic in the administration as the Maoists kept pushing towards the urban areas.
The officer said that in stage one, the Maoists had confined themselves and conducted the so called “people’s war” in the remote areas with mountainous or otherwise difficult terrain. Here the enemy was weak and it was easier to establish “liberated zones”. As the insurgents are in numbers, they spread over the adjoining countryside and gained popular support taking advantage of lack of development and grinding poverty. One may recall, in the ’60s, it was the Maoist call “land to the tiller”, which got them tremendous support in the countryside.
In the second and the final stage, insurgents, with adequate strength and support try encircle small cities. This include targeting of communication network. “We have witnessed blowing up of buses, derailment and hijacking of trains (Rajdhani Express hijack last year). These are all calculated steps to push their attack towards larger cities, till they finally capture the country,” the officer added.
As they enter the second and decisive phase of their “war against the state”, the Maoists are well aware of civilian casualties. Moreover, civilians targets are chosen to paralyse the administration, sources said.
“Hitting defenceless civilian population, which generally has a tendency to oppose violent movements, is the best form to spread panic in the urban areas,” the officer claimed.
It was pointed out that in Nepal, Maoists in the initial stages had “succeeded in controlling most of the country and formed 100,000 troops with nearly five divisions.” Similar to the Indian Maoists, the Nepalese rebels had also “resorted to conscription.” However, in the final stage, the Maoists in Nepal aligned themselves with democracy and virtually forced the government to strike a peace agreement. “With a slight tactical change, the Maoist insurgency in Nepal met with tremendous success,” the officer observed.