It might be raining less now, but the best performance of the southwest monsoon is expected to occur between July 26 and September 15 this year.
“South, east and central parts of India would receive widespread and effective rainfall during this period as compared to north and north-western states,” said astro meteorologist S. Ramachandran.
Noting that a below normal monsoon with less than 75 per cent rainfall is expected from this year’s southwest monsoon, Mr Ramachandran said that it would be a deficit rainfall in the north and north west of the country and in Tamil Nadu from June 1 to September 30.
Giving a detailed forecast of the monsoon, Mr Ramachandran, who has divided the season into four periods has estimated an indifferent and inadequate rainfall between June 1 and July 25. He had correctly judged the late onset of monsoon into the main lands.
According to India Meteorological Department (IMD) website, the country has received only 29.2 mm of per area average rainfall between June 1 and 13 this year compared to normal of 50.6 mm.
When contacted, an IMD official said, “The monsoon has been weak so far. The IMD has stated in its long range forecast that the 2012 southwest monsoon season is most likely to be normal.”
“IMD has improved a lot in short term forecast, but they have failed in their long term forecast over the past 60 years.
IMD is not alone in this failure as they have collaborations with World Meteorological Organisation, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and many other meteorological centres,” said Mr Ramachandran, adding that all meteorological centres are ignoring the influence of planets in predicting weather.