For Morsi and Egypt, challenges await

To call the election of Mr Mohammed Morsi as Egypt’s first elected President, that too belonging to the Muslim Brotherhood, historic is an understatement. He is the first freely elected President in the country’s history.

He is the first publicly acknowledged Muslim activist to attain the highest office. And in the Egyptian context, the Arab Spring, which appeared to be wilting, has suddenly got gale-force winds in its sails.
Yet Mr Morsi’s victory has come at a price. In a carefully choreographed event, the Armed Forces establishment (Supreme Council of Armed Forces) waited several days to announce the result; the competing candidate was the last Prime Minister of Hosni Mubarak, Ahmed Shafik. Ultimately, the SCAF decided that it would be too dangerous to fudge the result in favour of the latter because thousands of Muslim Brotherhood supporters were keeping vigil at the famous Tahrir Square for days and nights on end.
It is universally acknowledged that the choice for the people in the second round was cruel — between the Brotherhood and an old regime man. A Socialist came third in the first round. The youth, the precursors of the revolution of 18 days that deposed Mubarak, had nowhere to turn to. Nor was the choice more enviable for secular and liberal forces. Meanwhile, the Armed Forces did their sums to ensure their continuing hold on the power structure. A Mubarak-packed constitutional court had conveniently annulled the parliamentary elections; the Brotherhood had won nearly half the seats. The SCAF revived the 30-year-old emergency law and gave itself the authority to appoint a constitution-writing body and other sweeping powers.
Mr Morsi has thus become President of a country without a constitution or parliament, with the Armed Forces keeping all the levers of power. No wonder the new President’s first address promised an inclusive government while announcing his resignation from the Brotherhood. Ironically, his triumph from relative obscurity is an accident. A US-trained engineer, he was a reserve candidate for the party leader who was ruled out. Mr Morsi realises that he will need more than a speech to win over the people.
Mr Morsi’s tasks are cut out. He has to reconcile three contradictions. Foremost, he has to arrive at a modus vivendi with the SCAF. The Armed Forces run an economic empire and their contest with the Muslim Brotherhood, founded in 1928, is an old one. The SCAF cannot have things entirely its own way and will have to give up some power in the length of martial law it has re-imposed, in usurping the authority to constitute a constitution-writing commission and in claiming immunity from civilian oversight over its budget.
For some members of the SCAF, it is a new round in an old battle with the Muslim Brotherhood. President Mubarak had ruthlessly suppressed the Brotherhood, loosening the rope decades later by letting its members stand as independents in the tame parliament and then tightening it again. However, it would be self-destructive if the Armed Forces do not read the writing on the wall. While it will take long to dislodge the military from its powerful perch after the Turkish fashion, the SCAF will be courting trouble for itself and misery for Egypt if it does not attempt to move with the times. The old Egypt is gone, whatever the twists and turns the future might bring and however long it takes.
The first sign of President Morsi’s acumen will be apparent from his success in forming an inclusive Cabinet. He will face two kinds of pressures, apart from the SCAF — from his Brotherhood constituency that has steadfastly fought for its ideals for nearly 85 years and from modern and secular forces that were at the forefront of the Egyptian revolution. In a Shakespearean sense, greatness has been thrust upon him and he has to learn fast on the job if he is to fulfil the promise of what Egypt is to become.
The number of votes Mr Shafik attracted, despite his long innings in the old regime, is an indication of more and more Egyptians hankering after stability and order. The revolution that has been in progress for more than a year has devastated the country’s economy, further impoverishing the people and blighting job prospects for the army of unemployed youth. President Morsi was wise to emphasise his intention to honour the country’s treaties (read the pact with Israel) and has made the obligatory nod to relations with the US, which funds the Egyptian military with an annual aid package of $1.3 billion funnelled directly to them.
Indeed, American policy towards Egypt will play a significant part in the country’s future development because Washington’s record in buttressing dictatorships in the region for decades is well known. In Egypt’s case, American partiality for the Armed Forces is particularly sensitive because Washington is the principal protector of Israel despite its continuing occupation and colonisation of Palestinians in an Arab sea. On the face of it, Washington cannot go against the logic of the Arab Spring but it will continue to maintain close relations with the SCAF to ensure its interests.
Despite the sea of problems that face President Morsi, it is time to savour the moment of the most populous Arab country, burdened with a past — the peace treaty with Israel and after King Farouk’s dethronement, relying on a military-backed dictatorship — taking up the leadership role again in a more promising direction. Future battles will not only be with the Armed Forces but with civic forces seeking to build a more modern and secular society than the Islamic state of the Muslim Brotherhood’s original dream. The last are quite capable of rebelling if they are not granted their due.
President Morsi does not have the proverbial 100 days of grace. For him and Egypt, the clock started ticking the moment the much-expected result was announced. And we shall know soon enough whether he has the steel in him to rise to the occasion. It would be a modern miracle if President Morsi can surmount impossible odds.