In what could be a repeat of the 2009 drought scenario, the Indian monsoon has played truant again with 74 per cent of the country facing a rainfall deficit.
North-west India has experienced the maximum deficiency of 65 per cent while central India has faced a deficiency of 36 per cent. Rainfall in the south has fallen short by 29 per cent and it is only the north east and eastern India which has so far received normal rainfall.
Farming operations have been adversely hit in many states and the ministry of agriculture has asked the central and north-western states to prepare a contingency plan asking farmers to opt for drought-resistant varieties of paddy, pulses and oilseeds.
Already, paddy sowing which starts in April has yet to pick up momentum in the states of Haryana and Punjab. The cultivation of pulses and oilseeds have also been put on hold by farmers raising serious concerns in the farming community.
The minister of agriculture, Mr Sharad Pawar, is monitoring the situation on a daily basis along with agriculture secretary Ashish Bahuguna but already sources within this ministry point to a 50 per cent fall in crop sowing in the kharif season.
This drop in production is bound to spiral food inflation to new heights. Food expert Devinder Sharma cites the example of the 2009 monsoon debacle when the Indian Meteorological Department had predicted 96 per cent rainfall.
“A similar scenario is being repeated this year when IMD is predicting good rains but it seems there is going to be a buildup of El Nino,” he said.
The IMD, however, remains confident that a turnaround is going to take place and the monsoon will advance through north west India in the coming week.
Director-general of the IMD L.S. Rathore expressed hope that it was still the early weeks of the monsoon and the situation would improve during the next week ensuring that the rainfall deficiency is made up.
The erratic monsoon coupled with not so accurate IMD predictions has spurred the Maharashtra government to accelerate the proposed installation of over 2,000 private Automatic Weather Stations in the state.