Reading news reports of President Pratibha Devisingh Patil’s six-day visit to China to commemorate the 60th anniversary of Sino-Indian diplomatic relations from May 26, what came to mind was one of the basics of Chinese cuisine — sweet and sour. While in form, ceremony and cultural affairs, it was sweet, some sourness in discussions on other subjects was, as almost always from the Chinese, inevitable. Received with typical overwhelming Chinese hospitality, followed by meetings with the country’s top five leaders, including Xi Jinping, the Chinese Communist Party general secretary and president and chairman of the Central Military Commission, the high point of President Patil’s visit was inaugurating the Indian-style Buddhist temple next to the White Horse temple in Luoyang.
While foreign secretary Nirupama Rao, briefing the Indian media, described President Patil’s meeting with Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao as positive and conveyed that China had agreed to support India’s candidature to the non-permanent 15-member UN Security Council seat for 2010-2012, the Chinese maintained their support for a greater role for India in the UN. The state-controlled Chinese media neither made any mention of China’s support to India’s candidature for the 15-member non-permanent UN seat, nor of China’s stand on India’s aspiration for a permanent UN Security Council seat, whenever the Permanent 5 is expanded.
Wu Bangguo, senior member of the CCP Politburo Standing Committee, enunciated that both nations “should understand and respect each other’s core interests and major concerns, properly handle differences, and seek common development and a win-win situation”. Peeved about India clamping down on cheap Chinese goods flooding Indian markets and further recent restrictions on infotech companies in the wake of the exposure of China’s cyber attack on India, its leadership asked India to review the same.
External affairs minister S.M. Krishna’s visit to China preceding the President’s reportedly covered a number of the contentious issues, including the one on the boundary, China’s :“illegal” construction activities in Pakistan-Occupied Kashmir (PoK) and China issuing stapled visas to those hailing from Jammu and Kashmir as well as India, explaining its visa policy with reference to the Chinese entrepreneurs making a beeline to India on tourist visas. However, while both the President’s and the EAM’s visits have some potential of better trade relations, on the problem issues there has not been any assurance expressed by Chinese leaders.
With the bilateral trade touching $60 billion and the two economies recovering from global recession, there is strong interest among both the governments not to see a repeat of the 2009 phase. Also, though the trade between the two flourished, despite last year’s dip, India is deeply concerned about mounting trade deficit. In 2008, bilateral trade was estimated at $52 billion and in 2009, despite the global economic slowdown, at $44 billion. The first two months of 2010 have shown 55 per cent increase as compared to the previous year.
If trade relations between the two countries improve as expected, then they can be clubbed with the common concerns that emerged during the climate change meet for making further headway in the relationship, which logically should be “win-win”, but there are vital security/territorial issues which not only continue, but have increased.
Almost immediately after Ms Patil’s visit, China’s minister for defence, General Liang Guanglie, led a 17-member high-powered delegation to Islamabad for signing with his Pakistani counterpart, Chaudhry Ahmad Mukhtar, three memoranda of understanding (MoUs) aimed at “enhancing Pakistan’s capabilities to fight terror”. Under the accord, the three services of the two countries would hold joint military exercises, while China would provide four trainer aircraft for the Pakistan Air Force and 60 million yuan for the Armed Forces training. They also agreed to strengthen the military and strategic communication at all levels “to overcome challenges being faced by the two countries” and “share intelligence gathering which was essential for defeating terrorists”. Guanglie assured that China would continue to provide military and economic assistance to Pakistan and “support its stance on different issues at every international forum”. According to a Pakistani writer commenting on Guanglie’s visit, “Friendship and brotherly ties with China are not only time tested but China has always stood by Pakistan in its hour of need, whether it was war or a natural calamity. Chinese support in Pakistan’s defence capability and indigenisation endeavours have been based on solid foundations. China is the only country that has provided transfer of technology, soft loans and even technical expertise with no strings attached. Whether it was tanks and field guns, destroyers and frigates or the aviation industry, Chinese support has been invaluable and proved to be a source of strength and reliance for Pakistan. On its part, Pakistan, too, has stood by China and maintained its relations despite pressures from the West.”
With all the Chinese military waponry that Pakistan has received from China and also from the US, the Pakistan Army has been holding joint military exercises with China’s People’s Liberation Army and that too in recent years in southeast Jammu and Kashmir, where the enemy depicted is India. China illegally claims approximately 90,000 sq km of Indian territory in Arunachal Pradesh, about 2,000 sq km in the middle sector of the India-China boundary and controls 38,000 sq km of territory in J&K. Other Chinese moves affecting India adversely are: (a) China’s increasing presence in Bangladesh (b) Its presence and strategic development in Nepal and sponsoring its Maoists to reduce India’s influence there. (c) Plans to link up western China to PoK. (d) China’s designs on the mighty Brahmaputra river in India’s vast north-eastern region. (e) Arming regimes in Burma.
India needs to review and revitalise its China policy, implement strategic infrastructural development at a fast pace in states along the Line of Actual Control, so far begun recently in Arunachal, and increase its force levels and expedite long overdue defence acquisitions. New Delhi cannot project India as a power without the “thick stick” that it needs with the soft tone, which has unfortunately so far been backed by soft thought and approach too.
Anil Bhat, a retired Army officer, is a defence and security analyst based in New Delhi