All eyes on Egypt’s power play

In one fell swoop, Egypt’s first new civilian President, Mohammed Morsi, sacked the long-time defence minister and the virtual ruler of the country since the fall of Hosni Mubarak, Field Marshal Mohammed Tantawi, and the armed forces Chief of Staff, Gen. Sami Annan, making them presidential advisers. In addition, he annulled the June declaration by the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (Scaf) giving itself broad executive and legislative powers.

President Morsi stood conventional wisdom on its head because the pundits’ expectation was that the power play between the erstwhile representatives of the Muslim Brotherhood and the military, the traditional rulers of the country who had propped up Mr Mubarak for decades, would be a long and painful one. A struggle in some form could still take place but President Morsi’s seemingly pre-emptive action has surprised, if not amazed, his countrymen and the world.
Some reports suggest that the military was consulted, borne out by the sops of advisory roles and honours handed out to the two most powerful members of the Scaf, and the 76-year-old Field Marshal who was due for retirement.
Last week’s killing of 16 Egyptian border guards in the Sinai by extremists, which had demoralised the military was seized by Mr Morsi. It also led to the sacking of the military commander and other officials and Egypt conducted rare airstrikes on extremist holdouts in the area.
The Field Marshal has been replaced by Gen. Abdul Fattah al-Sisi, appointed both defence minister and military Chief of Staff. And in a masterstroke, the President appointed Mahmoud Mekki from the Supreme Constitutional Court as vice-president, the one senior judge who had raised the issue of judicial independence in the Mubarak era. The court, filled mostly with Mubarak loyalists, had endorsed the military’s edict giving itself all powers. It will now have to decide what to do with the civilian President’s soft counter-coup.
Judging by the meticulousness of the changes made, the plan, it would seem, was worked out by the President and his advisers.
While the United States is still weighing its formal reaction, it was pleased by President Morsi’s strong reaction to the extremists’ attack close to Israel’s border and is discussing closer cooperation with Egyptians on protecting its protégé Israel in a vulnerable peninsula.
Reports suggest that the new cooperation will take the form of training and supply of more arms to Cairo, also because it will take some of the pressure off Washington from Israelis primed to attack Iran.
Of greater long-term interest is the evolution of Egypt’s political and military development in the context of the turmoil in the region, particularly in Syria, and the pattern Egypt, the traditional leader of the Arab world, sets in subjugating the military to civilian rule. Two pointers in the new scenario are that Mr Morsi will be very careful in touching the great profitable economic empire the military has built up over the decades. Second, the President will need to take the liberal wing of Egyptian opinion into account.
The reaction of the Muslim Brotherhood followers, of joy and jubilation, was along expected lines. But, significantly, some liberals have also expressed their happiness over this blow struck against endemic military rule. Although Mr Morsi resigned from the Brotherhood and its affiliated Freedom and Justice Party, he has to consider his main support base and constituency in the actions he takes. Interestingly, he has justified the breathtaking moves he has made by declaring that they were “for the good of this nation and its people”.
President Morsi now has legislative and budgetary control, short of the court coming in the way, and will have an overseeing role in the drafting of the new Constitution, which will be watched with eagle eyes not only by the military but also by liberal sections.
Every step of the way will be fraught with perils as each clause will be scrutinised by the Right and the Left and the extreme fringes of each of these tendencies.
President Morsi will have to negotiate through these domestic minefields while his neighbourhood is on fire. Saudi Arabia and Qatar are the recognised supporters of the Syrian opposition as is Turkey, a strange metamorphosis in the last case. Turkey has now signed up with the United States to co-ordinate and pool policy pointers and information on Syria. Iran held its own conference on the regional crisis, with most invitees, including India, sending low-level diplomats, a pointer to its growing diplomatic isolation. The Sunni nations and Israel would dearly like to break the nexus between Syria and Iran.
It is ironic that President Morsi, who has suddenly acquired a larger-than-life image, was a substitute candidate for the Muslim Brotherhood and came into the picture because its main candidate was disqualified. Mr Morsi has had exposure to the United States, though his wife wears the headscarf. If he succeeds in wresting power from the military in a country where the military has been the main power factor since the overthrow of King Farouk, he would have achieved a remarkable feat.
It remains to be seen how acute the emerging regional Shia-Sunni schism will become because as a largely Sunni nation, Egypt will need to play a moderating role if outside powers encourage the sectarian conflict for their own interests. President Morsi’s task is Herculean. It is well understood that the ideology of non-alignment is a weak reed to rely upon, whatever rhetorical help it might offer the protagonists. There are many sharks waiting to pounce on the weak and the hapless.
India and the world hope that Mr Morsi will continue to display political acumen in taking his country and the region forward. But the question before the world today is whether anyone can stop the seemingly certain outside intervention in Syria as more and more military help is seeping through Turkey and demands for a no-fly zone over Syria grow louder.