The impact of corruption, price rise, economic slowdown and anti-incumbency could be seen in the Assembly elections in 10 states going to be held in phases in the coming months and the next year. In fact, 2013 is seen as a year of a mini-general election which will see almost a straight fight between the Congress and the BJP. These states have 125 Lok Sabha seats.
While the Gujarat and Himachal Pradesh Assembly elections will be held by the end of this year, Karnataka, Madhya Pradesh, Meghalaya, Mizoram, Nagaland, Delhi, Rajasthan and Tripura Assembly polls will be held next year in phases.
While the BJP has been in power in Gujarat, Himachal Pradesh, Karnataka and Madhya Pradesh, the Congress is ruling Rajasthan, Delhi, Mizoram and Meghalaya. The Left is ruling in Tripura.
In Nagaland, Mr Neiphiu Rio of the Nagaland People’s Front is ruling the state.
The BJP-led NDA seems to be determined to make corruption, especially the alleged scam in coal block allocations, its main poll plank to put the Congress in the dock.
The NDA has been stalling Parliament proceedings since last week with the demand that Prime Minister Manmohan Singh should resign. It is not interested in debates but in decisions.
The Congress party, on the other hand, has made scams and corruption in BJP-ruled Karnataka, Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat and Himachal Pradesh an issue.
The BJP has become a divided house in Karnataka where it has not only replaced two chief ministers in four years, but sees a challenge coming from the state heavyweight rebels to its central leaders.
Former chief minister and Lingayat community leader B.S. Yeddyurappa has already allied with Gujarat chief minister Narendra Modi against the BJP’s central leaders.
In Gujarat, the writ of the BJP high command does not work. There, “Narendra Modi is the BJP and the BJP is Narendra Modi”. That was the picture till a few yeas back. But Patels and anti-Modi leaders in the state and at the Centre may not give him a free hand.
Moreover, a section of the RSS does not want Mr Modi to be projected as the BJP’s prime ministerial candidate. Its choice is BJP chief Nitin Gadkari who has decided to contest the Lok Sabha seat from the RSS headquarters, Nagpur.
The Congress will try to get political mileage of the anti-incumbency and infighting in the saffron party and performance of the BJP governments in the polls. It will focus more on the state-specific issues than the national-level achievements of the Manmohan Singh government.
But the BJP could launch its election on the national level issues, including corruption charges in UPA-2, besides price rise and economic slowdown.