The Congress is not keen on expanding alliances in UPA-2 while its principle adversary, the BJP, is finding it difficult to keep its flock in the NDA together due to ideological differences, personality clash and lack of a strategy.
The Congress is currently sharing power with its allies, the NCP and the National Conference in Maharashtra, Goa and Jammu and Kashmir. It had virtually refused to ally with the Samajwadi Party in Uttar Pradesh in the Lok Sabha elections last year and taught a lesson to RJD supremo Lalu Prasad Yadav in Bihar when he had refused to leave more than three seats to the Sonia Gandhi-led party.
Now, the Congress’ strategy is to go it alone in the Hindi heartland while the BJP is likely to be compelled to follow its old line, ekla chalo.
Barring West Bengal and Tamil Nadu, the Congress is in no mood to forge alliances with the regional parties. This strategy became clear in the 2009 Lok Sabha elections when the Congress told its allies in the UPA that “the alliances this time would be state specific and not at national level”.
But in the 2004 general election, the Congress was accommodative and had left some seats to the UPA partners outside their states and even to the Marxists with the sole aim of unseating the BJP-led NDA from power at the Centre.
The emergence of Amethi MP Rahul Gandhi has made the Congress confident to take on Yadavs — Mr Mulayam Singh Yadav and Mr Lalu Prasad Yadav — and Ms Mayawati in Bihar and Uttar Pradesh, respectively. Its next objective is to win over 272 Lok Sabha seats on its own.
While the division in the Opposition is making the Congress stronger, the anti-Congress regional parties are not comfortable with the BJP due to its hard Hindutva and Gujarat chief minister Narendra Modi’s attempts to emerge as its national leader possibly in a new avatar.
The saffron party has no presence in Tamil Nadu, West Bengal, Kerala and is still irrelevant in Andhra Pradesh. While it has never been a major force in Maharashtra, it has been placed in a fourth position in Uttar Pradesh. In Bihar, the BJP is not in a position to form a next government on its own.
The NDA is shrinking in the absence of former Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee, who was acceptable to the Dravadian parties like the DMK or the PMK.
The BJP or the NDA has been lacking a leader like Mr Vajpayee.