The fight for survival

I am not surprised that we have a crisis in Bihar. The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is carefully studying the trends of the 2004 and 2009 general elections but it has limited options. In the 2004 elections, the Gujarat riots consolidated the minority vote against the BJP and, despite the charisma of Atal Behari Vajpayee, the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) was humbled. The regional parties, with a large presence of minority votes, like the All-India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam, the Telugu Desam Party and the Trinamul Congress, distanced themselves from the BJP. Later, in Orissa, Naveen Patnaik won a spectacular victory after breaking the alliance with the BJP. Similarly, in Bihar, Nitish Kumar has very limited options and there is nothing personal in these decisions.
There might be a temporary patch-up between the Janata Dal-United (JD-U) and the BJP as the situation in Bihar is different from Orissa. Clearly all concerned may be doing their “caste” calculations. The votes will split in a four-cornered fight as besides the JD(U) and the BJP there are the Rashtriya Janata Dal and the Lok Janashakti Party. Each party is fighting for survival and the Congress will also be a relevant factor with an increased vote share.
It is too early to make estimates but Mr Kumar has done his homework. Like Mamata Banerjee in West Bengal or Naveen Patnaik in Orissa, he is looking at the future but has limited options. One has to literally fight for every seat in the state to get an outright majority.
Here I would like to mention that the third front is again a possibility and can consolidate under Mr Kumar — there will be a temptation for a “grand alliance”. Also, this is not going to be an easy decision for the chief minister of Bihar. The decision can go in either direction as there are too many moving parts in this jigsaw puzzle.
Strong regional groups exist but many have been weakened and are in need of a “central” umbrella. Everyone is in touch with each other but in view of past experience a premature decision would be chaotic. Politics is about possibilities and as the Congress consolidates and aspires, so will the third front. I am not very certain what will happen to the NDA as the churning process is on and will take a definite turn by the end of 2012 — the end of four major Assembly elections that together comprise 200 Lok Sabha seats.
A few weeks ago I had written that a major realignment of forces was inevitable as the BJP is no longer in a position to lead a coalition. Like 1989, the BJP can only be a part of a Central structure and this is necessary if it wants to retain Himachal Pradesh, Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh and to some extent Rajasthan (if Vasundhara Raje is allowed to function) and Karnataka.
In terms of coalition structures, if there is a favourable situation the BJP will not exceed 80-100 seats in the Lok Sabha and 60-80 seats if the situation is negative. The current situation is that the Congress will lose to a strong regional force unless it develops its own cadres in the states but will be better placed against the BJP in a straight fight. This will be reflected in the Assembly elections in Bihar, Tamil Nadu, West Bengal and Uttar Pradesh. Here I am indulging in some form of “political” astrology and I see the Congress maintaining its current position, the regional forces consolidating further and the BJP under pressure. I think the position for the 2014 general elections will be clear by the end of 2012.
Leadership and political succession is an important aspect for the future. The Congress has a distinct advantage as it offers an “option” in Rahul Gandhi at the Centre but it lacks adequate leadership at the state level. The BJP, and the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh, have strong chief ministers in all the states where it has formed government, barring Rajasthan, where it was bogged down by internal dissent.
The BJP will continue with its internal contradictions unless Gujarat chief minister Narendra Modi, who has the reputation of an able administrator with impeccable integrity, is made to lead the party. The BJP has to accept the positives and negatives of this situation and, unless it does, it will continue to lose to the Congress as “interim” solutions do not work in politics.
The BJP’s strength lies in effective chief ministers in Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Himachal Pradesh and Karnataka and Vasundhara Raje in Rajasthan, but it has lost out in Uttar Pradesh to the Congress and can’t afford another loss in Bihar after Orissa. The NDA would have little meaning without the JD(U) and the Shiv Sena in Maharashtra is rife with internal dissent. The BJP has to take a decision for the future.

WE WILL witness “political accidents”, as we see in the chaos generated after the court’s verdict on the Bhopal gas tragedy. But I don’t think this will influence the course of events in the long term unless the United Progressive Alliance bungles the issue. The initial report of the group of ministers (GoM) is positive and is a small step forward, but this issue will not fade away. Like the 1984 Sikh riots in Delhi and the communal clashes in Gujarat the issue will continue to fester unless justice is rendered.
Several aspects are being investigated by the media, including the legal situation from 1991 onwards taking into account all aspects of the decision, including the arguments of the lawyers, the role of the Central Bureau of Investigation and other official agencies, and all officials associated with the case and their assignments after retirement.
Time is not a relevant factor. Whenever human lives are lost the issue continues to exist. With advances in technology and 24x7 media coverage, issues like the Bhopal gas tragedy, which took place 25 years ago, are creating a bigger impact in the public mind today as compared to 1984.

Arun Nehru is a former Union Minister