Gaza: On the brink, again...

Israelis and Palestinians and the wider region and the world are paying the price of 45 years of occupation of Palestinian lands underwritten by the United States economically, militarily and diplomatically.

The tragedy is that a re-elected President Barack Obama for four more years is constrained in what he can do because every American politician is an Israeli as far as protecting the Jewish state’s interests are concerned, even to the detriment of Washington’s own interest. Israel’s decision to escalate the simmering crisis in the face of Hamas rockets from the virtually imprisoned Gaza Strip by murdering the military chief of the militant movement was typical of Tel Aviv’s behaviour in its continuing occupation of the West Bank.
President Obama’s attempt to chart a brave new world in terms of a new beginning in his country’s relations with the Muslim world shortly after his election in the symbolic heart of the Arab world in Cairo ended in his having to eat his words because his first move to tackle the expanding Israeli settlements on occupied land against all cannons of international law were met by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s contemptuous rejection. It was par for the course that the latter received many standing ovations in addressing the joint session of US Congress in Washington.
Apart from conducting hundreds of bombing runs on the Gaza Strip ostensibly to take out rocket launching sites, later expanded to bomb Hamas administrative and government structures, for days even as Hamas rockets reached Jerusalem and the outskirts of Tel Aviv, the Israeli administration is following the old script of disproportionate revenge. And four years after its last military incursion into Gaza in which 1,400 Palestinians and a few Israelis died, Mr Netanyahu is poised to make another ground foray, with reservists being called up and heavy military armour being moved up to the border.
The United Nations is paralysed yet again because, as always, Israel is fully protected by the United States although the organisation’s Secretary-General, Ban Ki-moon, is making a brave effort to pull Israelis and Palestinians away from the brink. But Israel does not fully recognise how the Arab world has changed dramatically, with no Hosni Mubarak, the toppled Egyptian President, pulling Tel Aviv’s chestnuts out of the fire. Instead, following the snowballing Arab Spring, Muhammed Morsi of the Muslim Brotherhood is the new ruler. Hamas is, in fact, a branch of the Brotherhood although thus far his support for Hamas has been more rhetorical in expressing solidarity and sending his Prime Minister on a brief visit to Gaza than in announcing any military support and hinting at a cease-fire.
Egypt and Israel signed a peace treaty in 1979, which has remained a linchpin of America’s policy towards the region because Cairo receives a hefty subvention from Washington and international support and assistance from multilateral institutions. Despite his own and his people’s anger over Israeli actions, Mr Morsi has been careful in not crossing the red line; how long he can ward off the outrage on the streets of Cairo and other cities remains to be seen.
It would seem that Mr Netanyahu and many of his countrymen had persuaded themselves that with the turmoil in the Arab world, with Syria under present focus, the Israeli-Palestinian conflict had receded to the background and that they were free to colonise most of occupied Palestinian land and occupied East Jerusalem permanently to deny Palestinians a two-state solution, fobbing them and the world off with remnants of Bantustans with limited local autonomy. If Israelis really believed in this perspective, they were flying in the face of history and the march of events in West Asia in the last two years. Again, if they believe that the continuing turmoil in the region would work to their advantage, they are living in a fool’s paradise.
If Israelis continue on the path they seem to have chosen, they can only invite further trouble for themselves. They have cutting edge military weapons, largely courtesy the United States. And again, they can pretty much wipe out Gaza and most of the West Bank not already incorporated into Israel, but where will it take Israel and the United States? In a sense, the problem boils down to American domestic politics. Even the most pro-Israeli of American politicians will realise one day that the tail wagging the dog has its limits, given their country’s worldwide interests. How soon this realisation will come remains to be seen. The beginnings of a different Jewish narrative in the US is apparent from the J Street movement, but its voice is feeble given the clout of major American Jewish organisations which fund American politicians in Congressional and Senate contents or blackball the truants.
In a sense, Israelis have told themselves that they will always live in a turbulent part of the world and must secure their future by intimidating their neighbours and relying on US might. But Israel’s difficulties will continue to mount by the day, with Egypt under increasing pressure to side with Hamas and other Palestinians, and Jordan, the only other Arab nation in a treaty relationship with Israel, itself facing unprecedented unrest, invariably facing calls to annul the treaty.
President Obama has an unenviable task ahead in trying to ward off Israeli recklessness before the region plunges into a new unwinnable war even while swearing undying loyalty to Israel. Many times during the Arab Spring, the region seemed to be teetering on the edge of an abyss, with Syria in the throes of a civil war at present. Despite the chaos that is the staple in Libya and the first public anti-King demonstrations in Jordan, the worst has not happened. It would be a great pity if Israel now pushes West Asia beyond the point of no return because it believes in its Biblical right to the territory it occupies and colonises to the applause of the American political class. Indeed, it would amount to a tragedy for the world.