The hopes are receding for a positive northeast monsoon this year, as the weathermen are sceptical about rains in December turning saviour for the state.
Tamil Nadu has recorded one of the poorest average rainfalls in November this year, registering 79.5 mm, compared to a normal of 171 mm.
Overall, the state has recorded 4 per cent deficit rainfall this season, starting October 1. Among the deficit districts are Ariyalur, Chennai, Madurai, Perambalur, Tirupur and Virudhunagar.
While in several years, the rains have been substantial in December to compensate the shortfall during November, the met officials are not confident of a similar turnaround this year. In 1983 and 2007, Nungambakkam got 413 mm and 256.3 mm in December to compensate for the poor rainfall of 85 mm and 95 mm in November.
But in 2003, the meagre 85 mm in November was followed by poorer 77.4 mm rain in December in Chennai.
“All models are not showing positive rainfall next week. So, we have to wait and watch,” said Dr Y.E.A. Raj, deputy director general of meteorology, Regional Meteorological Centre, Chennai.
“The substantial rainfall received in October has helped the state register 34 cm so far, but it requires another 10 cm of rains in the next four weeks to reach normal status this season,” he added.
“Twin-eye has formed over and above Sri Lanka. If the lower eye intensifies, then Tamil Nadu will benefit. But if the upper eye moves ahead or both of them merge, then we might not get rain. The system would move to Andhra Pradesh,” said Dr V. Geethalakshmi, professor and head, Agro Climate Research Centre, Tamil Nadu Agricultural University, Coimbatore.
She said the monsoon had behaved differently this year, compared to the last many years.
“In the El-Nino year, we normally get above normal or at least normal rainfall. At times, the distribution will be a bit of a problem, but the quantity of rain received would be near the expected lines. But this year, we are experiencing newer things. We are not able to predict clearly for December,” she added.