Common concerns

The June 5 Bharat bandh, called by the National Democratic Alliance and the Left parties, crippled India for a day. Clearly, the issue of “price rise” will remain a priority for both, the ruling party as well as for the Opposition. The bandh was a success because inflation and rising prices of essential commodities is a reality for the public.

Almost everyone, from the aam aadmi to the middle class, is affected and common sense tells us that further rise in the prices of fuel will aggravate the situation.
I have little doubt that everyone concerned is well aware of the increase in international prices of crude oil. But everyone is also aware of multiple and excessive taxation on petroleum prices. There is a general feeling that both, the Central and the state governments, have lost interest in the aam aadmi. And I think this may well be reflected in the coming elections.
Change is taking place in every part of our society at a very rapid rate and the media, both electronic and print, is changing many traditional attitudes. The “need” factor of the aam aadmi is no longer restricted to basic essentials.
We have a global crisis in Europe and recovery is still very fragile in the United States. While there is no doubt that the critical economic issue is to control deficits, good economic practice is not always credible in a society with great disparity in incomes. While the government must do what is essential for good governance, the distribution of the gains of a nine per cent gross domestic product growth needs very close scrutiny. The National Advisory Council headed by Congress president Sonia Gandhi will have much to do in the coming months.
A good monsoon in the coming weeks will result in good crops, and we will again face the problem of storing foodgrains. Some nimble thinking is required on export of our surplus crops and, if necessary, imports of some commodities like sugar. We need a full-time Cabinet minister to deal with this situation.
Media reports indicate a Cabinet reshuffle and the media is busy picking the winners and losers in the power game. Apart from Union food and agriculture minister Sharad Pawar’s elevation as the International Cricket Council president, Mr Pawar also has to plan his succession in the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP).
Though confined to Maharashtra, Mr Pawar is a mass leader and has always functioned far beyond his strength in numbers. But the situation in Maharashtra is fluid with the alliance between the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the Shiv Sena under pressure. This will make the role of the NCP crucial and for Mr Pawar party matters will become a priority.
The Cabinet reshuffle may well see changes in the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam representation as the image of the United Progressive Alliance and Prime Minister Manmohan Singh has been taking a beating with Union communications minister A. Raja’s involvement in the 2G spectrum scam. A change is necessary. For the Trinamul Congress, the reshuffle may be useful as its ministers of state might be given a bigger responsibility.
Change within the Congress Party is long overdue and the thinking of the future has to be reflected in the changes both in the Cabinet and within the party.
In the 2014 general elections while the Congress will try to inch towards the magic figure of 272 seats, the Opposition will have little option but to make strategic alliances for survival. The Assembly elections in Bihar, West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Uttar Pradesh and Punjab will, in all probability, set the pattern for the next government at the Centre. The Congress, despite the odd political accident, is still in a strong position. In Uttar Pradesh, for example, talks are on between the Congress and the Rashtriya Lok Dal to put up a united front against the Bahujan Samaj Party. The Opposition scores a point or two for a few days but is unable to sustain its advantage.

THE INTERNAL security situation in Kashmir continues to fester. Though the curfew was relaxed on Friday for 24 hours, chief minister Omar Abdullah has requested the Army to restore law and order. Dr Singh has called a Cabinet Committee on Security as since June 11 there have been 14 civilian deaths, which is a matter of grave concern.
After a record turnout in the Jammu and Kashmir Assembly elections, little work has been done on development. Clearly, the situation in Kashmir has to be tackled by the National Conference-Congress combine and a prolonged posting of the Army is not advisable. Anti-national elements and terror networks will utilise this to their advantage in a state where there is already a great deal of talk about poor governance after the record voter turnout.

THE TWO-DAY bandh on July 13-14 called by the Maoists is being taken rather seriously by the government. There is a full red alert in all the seven states where Maoists have a strong presence — Bihar, Jharkhand, Orissa, Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh — and Dr Singh has cancelled his visit to Andhra Pradesh for the fourth time after the killing of C. Rajkumar Azad in a police encounter.
The political situation in Andhra Pradesh continues to simmer as elections draw near in Telangana. The Telangana Rashtriya Samithi has adopted an aggressive attitude and has an advantage. The Congress looks fragmented but Chandrababu Naidu and his Telugu Desam Party is not looking like a credible alternative either. While political confusion with Jagan Mohan Reddy, son of late chief minister Y.S. Rajasekhar Reddy, continues, the Congress high command is seeking a solution.
I have written several times of family members of political leaders becoming business tycoons and Mr Jagan Reddy is very much a part of this brigade. And he will have to face serious issues soon. Many of his supporters, who need the power of the state to maintain their financial status, will encourage him to challenge the Congress. The Congress is in a difficult position but Mr Jagan Reddy may find that his “excessive” assets are a major liability. It takes more than financial power to meet political challenges.

Arun Nehru is a former Union Minister