Leaders of the the ruling alliance are assessing the strengths and weaknesses of the UPA and NDA and feel that the political situation will become clearer only after the presentation of the Union Budget next month.
Regional parties, by and large, will remain key players in about half-a-dozen states including Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Punjab, Orissa, Maharashtra and Jammu and Kashmir.
According to them, the Congress would gain in Karnataka and Himachal Pradesh and could improve in Madhya Pradesh, and Chhattisgarh.
In Bihar, its numbers will inclrease if it allies with the RJD and the LJP led by Lalu Prasad Yadav and Ram Vilas Paswan respectively. As for Andhra Pradesh, one if its strongest states, the high command would have to resolve the issue of separate Telangana state otherwise the party’s numbers would come down drastically in the Lok Sabha and the state Assembly as well.
The Congress is not in a good shape in Uttar Pradesh, West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Punjab and may face incumbency in Maharashtra, Kerala, Delhi, Haryana and Rajasthan.
But the BJP too is not seen improving in south Uttar Pradesh and has not been a major player in Maharashtra and Assam.
“We are passing through a fluid situation politically, picture could become clear after June-July. The SP, Trinamul Congress, BJD are facing incumbency but to what extend it can damage them in UP, Bihar and Orissa need to seen,” the UPA insiders said.
The Congress’ strategy of alliances would become clear in its two-day brain storming session being held in Jaipur this month. Currently, the DMK and the NCP are its major allies in the UPA.