Regional parties watching developments in the Congress and the BJP could play their cards after presentation of the general budget in Parliament. They have been key players in Uttar Pradesh, West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Bihar, Andhra Pradesh and Maharashtra.
Therefore, pre-poll alliance in these states is going to be a decisive factor in the coming Lok Sabha elections where national parties are not in a position to dictate terms.
The Congress is confident of getting support of at least three regional parties — either Samajwadi Party or the BSP, DMK or the AIADMK and RJD or the Janata Dal (U). In fact, division in the regional parties have been helping both the BJP (1998 to 2004) and the Congress (since 2004) for the last 15 years.
According to Congress insiders, Maharashtra and Andhra Pradesh could be dicey this time.
“The NCP is giving conflicting signals while the Shiv Sena and the MNS will have to come together for their political survival after the demise of Bal Thackeray. And in Andhra Pradesh, the Congress will not retain its numbers even after creating a separate Telangana state,” they said.
According to the reports coming from Maharashtra, the Mulayam Singh Yadav led party has already started approaching dissidents in the Congress.
The SP and the All India Majlis-E-Ittehadul Muslimeen led by Asaduddin Owaisi could damage the Congress’ support base among minorities in Maharashtra.
While the Congress-NCP’s Maratha, minorities and dalit votebank is intact by and large, the ruling partners could face anti-incumbency factor this time.
The Congress will be fighting the Lok Sabha battle under the leadership of Mr Rahul Gandhi while the BJP cannot afford to ignore Gujarat chief minister Narendra Modi.
Anti-Congress parties will try to gain or expand their political space through tactical alliance.