The Congress’ strategy on alliances could become clear about six months before the Lok Sabha elections at a time when the BJP and other political parties are predicting early polls. While the saffron party has not been able to expand the NDA, a third alternative, popularly known as the third front, has yet to emerge.
Regional players, who have had enough experience of working with the Congress and the BJP in the UPA and the NDA, could be slippery this time. This is because some of them want to become the PM but it cannot be possible without the support of either the Congress or the BJP. While the Congress has made up its mind to fight the next Lok Sabha elections under the UPA banner, it has to identify allies in six major states.
The BJP’s attempt to revive Ayodhya and the campaign for Gujarat chief minister Narendra Modi to become the PM could be a double-edged weapon for the NDA, sources said. They are also predicting a split in the JD(U).
Currently, the Congress is assessing strength and weaknesses in the organisation. Its vice-president Rahul Gandhi held three meetings with the AICC officials — general secretary, CWC members in-charge of different states, heads of frontal organisations and the secretaries — a few days back. He will be extending this exercise at the state level by calling a meeting of the state Congress chiefs and the legislative party leaders in New Delhi on February 15.
This will help the party during its seat-sharing negotiations with the current and prospective allies.
West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Bihar, Maharashtra and Andhra Pradesh are the crucial states for the party as far as pre-poll alliances are concerned. These states could decide who would rule the Centre after the Lok Sabha elections. Another important state is Uttar Pradesh. But the current mood in the Congress is not in favour of pre-poll alliance with either the Samajwadi Party or the BSP. But both are seen as post-poll allies or supporting parties. “Alliances cannot be announced one year before the elections. Its process had begun in December 2003 and within three months the picture became clear,” recalled a member of the Congress think tank.
Mrs Sonia Gandhi had gone to the residence of LJP chief Ram Vilas Paswan, NCP supremo Sharad Pawar in New Delhi and brought the DMK and RJD to the anti-NDA front. The coming together of the DMK, NCP, RJD, LJP, TRS, MDMK, PMK and tactical understanding with the Left led to the fall of the BJP-led NDA.
In 2008, the Mamata Banerjee-led Trinamul Congress had moved closer to the Congress after the Left had withdrawn their support to the Manmohan Singh government on the nuclear deal issue.
The first meeting of the Congress’ sub-group on pre-poll alliances had preliminary discussions.