Mumbai ka king kaun?

Maharashtra politics used to be simply defined at one time as the tussle for power between the Marathas and the others. Though there were chief ministers from other communities as well, going back to V.P. Naik, it was the Marathas who called the shots.

The source of their power lay chiefly in the sugar cooperatives of western Maharashtra, which gave them access to money and patronage. While in power they gave many concessions and economic privileges to the region, upsetting people from Vidarbha and Konkan, among other regions, who felt that they were being shortchanged. The Marathas were just too powerful to care and whenever they felt their position threatened, they retaliated.
Mumbai’s politics was controlled by the Shiv Sena, which, after its formation in 1966, had slowly grown to be a credible presence in the metropolis. But for all of Bal Thackeray’s popularity, the party could not make much headway in other parts of the state and neither could the Marathas establish their dominance in Mumbai. The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), despite its national presence, remained a junior partner to the local outfit, because it did not have the strength to win on its own.
Today, the situation is a complex one. Not one or two but five parties jockey for space in the state and there are vast areas of overlap between them. The Congress
and the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP), started by Sharad Pawar in 1999, are in an uneasy coalition because they need each other. But in truth, they are both aiming for broadly the same votebanks; not surprisingly, both snipe at each other all the time.
The Shiv Sena split in 2006 when Raj Thackeray walked out of his uncle Bal Thackeray’s home to set up the Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS). Both the Senas, too, are interested in the Marathi manoos vote, chiefly in Mumbai and its environs. In the post-Bal Thackeray phase, his son Uddhav has made some cursory noises about working together, but has been rebuffed. The Shiv Sena worries about losing its second and third-rung leaders to the MNS,but the bigger concern is that Marathi voters will move en masse to Raj, who is considered a more credible successor to his uncle.
The BJP is an uneasy partner of the Shiv Sena. The latter loses no opportunity to snub the former and Bal Thackeray was clear that he was the true leader of the Hindus, at least in his state. The BJP would very much like to get cozy with MNS, but dare not make the move for fear of being decimated in the elections.
In recent months, things have become even more complicated. The MNS wants to move beyond Mumbai — it is eyeing western Maharashtra and this brings it in direct conflict with the NCP, specifically Sharad Pawar’s nephew, Ajit Pawar, who is not one to take any challenge lying down. Last week, workers of both the parties clashed openly after stones were pelted at Raj Thackeray’s cavalcade. Expect more heat in the coming months.
The MNS did not win any seats in the Lok Sabha election the last time round, but it almost certainly affected the Shiv Sena-BJP combine’s performance in a few seats. If this is repeated, it cannot be a good augury for the BJP which hopes to oust the Congress in 2014. The last time the combine got 20 seats; it will certainly want to increase that number substantially. Maharashtra is a crucial state because the Congress, though it got 17 seats the last time, cannot take its success for granted. Indeed, given that it stands to lose in other states, such as Andhra Pradesh, it needs to make up elsewhere, and Maharashtra is one place it is banking on.
Here Sharad Pawar becomes crucial. His party won eight seats, which puts him behind the others in the state, but the big question is — where do his loyalties lie? For the moment he is with the United Progressive Alliance (UPA), but is that a long-term marriage? Always one to keep everyone guessing, he made a cryptic statement recently, when he said that as far as he was concerned, there was no difference between the UPA and the National Democratic Alliance. This was immediately interpreted as his way of keeping his options open in the event of a hung Parliament. But then he has always kept his options open; what is different this time is that if the final result is really close, then he will be in a bargaining position and will not settle for anything he deems below his stature. His dream of bagging the top job has not disappeared and he harbours hopes before every election that he will be called up. The determination of the MNS to break into the NCP’s bastion should, therefore, worry him because it could not only reduce his tally but also his ultimate influence.
Of course, for the MNS, the big prize is the Maharashtra legislature. In 2009, it won 13 seats, not a bad performance considering it was the first election for the party. This time Raj Thackeray will want to do much better; for this he needs grassroots machinery, and bringing over the Shiv Sena’s cadre and leaders is a good way to get a ready-made setup. Raj Thackeray is in a hurry and he has no time to painstakingly build an organisation. But his growth can only come at the expense of the Shiv Sena and the NCP and neither will sit idly while he expands.
Maharashtra is one of the few states with so many parties, each making forays into the other’s territory. Coalitions have held fast so far, but the MNS and its increasing popularity can prove to be a destabilising factor. For the Congress, as much as for the BJP, Maharashtra is a crucial state, with 48 seats to be won.
With election still a year or so away, early conflicts have already begun. In the coming months, as each party tries to protect its own corner and attempts to make forays into the other’s territory, no holds barred battles will be fought, some of them on the streets of Mumbai and elsewhere.