The Congress is watching developments in the BJP-led NDA, which has been shrinking and is thus unable to emerge as an alternate to the UPA for various reasons.
While the DMK, PMK, MDMK, LJP, Indian National Lok Dal quit the BJP-led front before the 2004 Lok Sabha elections, the Biju Janata Dal, the Mamata Banerjee-led Trinamul Congress and the Jammu and Kashmir National Conference followed suit. The TDP and the AGP too distanced themselves from the saffron party, Congress insiders pointed out.
The Shiv Sena, the oldest ideological ally of the BJP, has started giving conflicting signals after Gujarat chief minister Narendra Modi showed his love for MNS chief Raj Thackeray.
In fact, a section of the BJP feels that Raj would be more effective than the Shiv Sena led by Uddhav Thackeray. The Shiv Sena had voted for Congress nominee Pratibha Patil and Pranab Mukherjee in the presidential elections.
Interestingly, the Shiv Sena is refusing to join the campaign of “Modi lao, BJP bachao (bring Modi and save the BJP)”. Instead, it is floating the name of Leader of the Opposition Sushma Swaraj for the top post.
The Janata Dal (United), too, has been uncomfortable with the BJP ever since supporters of Mr Modi launched a campaign for his projection as the PM candidate.
The JD(U) took a line different from the BJP in the presidential election last year and voted for Mr Pranab Mukherjee. Bihar chief minister Nitish Kumar cannot remain with the NDA if it projects Mr Modi as its PM candidate. A section of the Janata Parivar foresees a split in the JD(U).
The Shiromani Akali Dal is perhaps the only BJP ally in the NDA which has followed the coalition dharma.
The BJP, which has no presence in Kerala, Tamil Nadu, West Bengal and Andhra Pradesh, cannot come to power at the Centre without strong allies. It has been placed to third position in Uttar Pradesh and remained a junior player in Maharashtra, concede NDA insiders.
Barring the Haryana Janhit Congress (BL), the BJP could not win a single friend who matter in states after the defeat in the 2004 Lok Sabha polls.