A pre-poll alliance in West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Bihar, Maharashtra and Andhra Pradesh will be crucial for the Congress and the BJP in the coming Lok Sabha elections. While this may help the Congress retain its numbers in the Lower House, such alliances could increase the BJP’s numbers.
The Congress came to power in the 2004 and 2009 Lok Sabha elections due to the pre poll alliances in the above-mentioned states, but this time no regional party has come forward to ally with it after the Trinamul Congress and the DMK quit the UPA.
“We may not cross 120 seats if the elections are held today,” feared a section within the Congress. And a victory in the Karnataka Assembly polls would not create a wave in favour of us just as it did not help the BJP when it won Karnataka in the 2008 state Assembly polls, they pointed out.
The government programmes, use of social media, charismatic leadership is important but cannot help in winning the electoral battle, the party sources said.
While the DMK and the Trinamul Congress are assessing the political situation, the AIADMK, Left, the Samajwadi Party, the BSP, the BJD and the TDP have not shown any interest for a pre-poll alliance with either the UPA or the NDA. A section of the UPA is confident that the Trinamul supremo Mamata Banerjee would return back to the Congress-led front before the polls.
Moreover, the Janata Dal (U) too would move closer to the Congress if the BJP “imposes” Gujarat chief minister Narendra Modi as the PM candidate for the NDA.
But such a move would help the JD(U) in the elections. Another important factor is that the Congress has had a weak presence in Bihar.
AICC in-charge for West Bengal Shakeel Ahmed on Friday indicated that the Congress could go alone in the state and the Trinamul could be a loser if it join hands with the BJP.
Meanwhile, the BJP is virtually isolated in West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh and Kerala politically.
And it is not a major player in four crucial states — Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Maharashtra and Orissa.