Experts predict good monsoon

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R. Ramakumar [1]

As El Nino and La Nina are stable with no activity over the Pacific Ocean, India is expected to have a good monsoon this year. Global meteorology experts predict that as the sea surface temperature in the Pacific is not active at the moment, there are prospects of a good monsoon. The southern oscillation points to a good southwest monsoon in Kerala and Tamil Nadu.
“Sea surface temperature is one of the most important parameters to predict monsoon. The temperature and pressure are normal in the Pacific Ocean, which means we neither have a warming nor a cooling phase. So we can expect a normal southwest monsoon,” said Dr V. Geethalakshmi, head, Agro Climate Research Centre, Tamil Nadu Agriculture University, Coimbatore. While we can expect a good or above normal monsoon during El Nino year, the effect of La Nina year is just the opposite.
However, another Met expert said, “The initial forecast by the Japanese Met officials, show a negative Indian Ocean Dipole also known as the Indian Nino, which is an irregular oscillation of sea-surface temperatures in which the western Indian Ocean becomes alternately warmer and then colder than the eastern part of the ocean.”
“Last year, the Japanese got their forecast wrong for the first time and so, they will wait till May end to come out with their predictions this year,” the expert added. In India, the lead long range forecaster at the Indian Meteorological Department, Dr D. S. Pai is currently attending the South Asian Climate Outlook Forum at Kathmandu. “We can expect the long term forecast for southwest monsoon by April 24 or 25,” the official at Pune Met office said.
While Tamil Nadu received deficient rainfall of minus 23 per cent, Kerala recorded minus 24 per cent in 2012.