Narendra Modi's march to Delhi may not be that smooth

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New Delhi: Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi’s elevation to national centrestage after being anointed the BJP’s campaign committee chief for the 2014 General Election may have enthused party workers and rejuvenated them, but the road ahead is less rosy than perceived by BJP leaders.
Many Modi supporters among the party’s top leadership feel he was the best possible choice and that this gives the party a better chance to return to power at the Centre by removing the Congress-led UPA. However, Modi’s march to Delhi could turn out to be tough given that the BJP has no significant presence in South India, West Bengal and the Northeast. Uttar Pradesh too, with the largest number of Lok Sabha seats, will also be a major testing ground, as the BJP is in total disarray in the state.
In the South, with 130 parliamentary seats, the party’s presence is almost nil, barring Karnataka. However, in Karnataka also, after B.S. Yeddyurappa quit the party, BJP was decimated to third player following Assembly elections last month. Congress has come back to power in the state and JD(S) with 40 seats in the Assembly acquired the status of principal Opposition in the House.
Modi has his task cut out in Karnataka, which account for 28 Lok Sabha seat. To revive party in the state, where once it ruled, he has to make sure that Yeddyurappa and his supporters are brought back to the party fold. In case of Tamil Nadu, Kerala and Andhra Pradesh, he has no option but to look for alliance partner, which he may get in the form of J Jayalalithaa and YSR Congress.
The two states combined together account for 81 Lok Sabha seats.Similarly, in West Bengal, which account for 42 Lok Sabha seats, Modi will have no option but to look up to ruling TMC led by Mamata Banerjee and rightly so during his last visit to Kolkata he showered praise on the state government.However, allies will come to BJP only if Modi would be able to manage certain numbers in Lok Sabha (say around 200) for his party and for this Uttar Pradesh with 80 Lok Sabha seats would be crucial.
It is generally perceived that if Modi fails to do a turn around for the party in UP and takes the party’s tally to around 40-45, there would be no chance for the BJP to grab power at the Centre. But thankfully the BJP president himself comes from UP and one of his most trusted lieutenant Amit Shah has been made general secretary in-charge of the state.
The seven northeastern states, which account for about 50 Lok Sabha seats, are another troubled area, where BJP has a very scant support base and Modi is needed to work hard at least in Assam, which is the largest among the seven states.
A new political arena
Venkatesh Kesari | DC
Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi’s elevation to the BJP’s campaign committee chief could change the rules of the game. While the Congress is pegging its hopes on dissidents in the saffron party, the role of regional players in the UPA and outside would be important in the coming elections.
The Congress is unlikely to check Modi, the BJP’s undeclared PM candidate, on its own. This is because it has been weak in the Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, West Bengal, Tamil Nadu and not strong in Maharashtra and obviously in Andhra Pradesh.
But it could check him to some extent if the Samajwadi Party, BSP, Trinamul Congress, Left, AIADMK, DMK, RJD, JD(U) and the JD(S) join hands with the Sonia Gandhi-led party. However, Modi would try to win over the three powerful women leaders — Mayawati, Jayalalithaa, Mamata Banerjee — as they cannot ally with Mulayam Singh Yadav, M. Karunanidhi and the Left directly or indirectly.
Moreover, a pre-poll alliance in AP would be important for both the Congress and the BJP. The fight in Maharashtra may not be easy for the Congress-NCP combine. But a viable poll strategy could help them this time also since Modi cannot keep the Shiv Sena and the MNS in good humour.
Although the 2004 general election was fought on India Shining versus “aam aadmi”, the BJP-led NDA got defeated because of polarisation of secular forces. This time it has become relevant because of the BJP’s Modi face.
In fact, Modi remained silent on the issue of “communal harmony” in his first speech made before BJP workers after his anointment as the campaign committee chief in the party’s national executive in Panaji on Sunday. Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and the Congress were his main targets of attack. He virtually coined a slogan: “Congress bhagao, desh bachao (free the country of the Congress)”.
The message is loud and clear: he does not consider regional parties in the UPA and outside as the potential rivals. The BJP had earlier allied with the Trinamul Congress, DMK, AIADMK, TDP, BJD, INLD, BSP and even the National Conference.
He could revive the old contacts. But whether he will gain in Bihar minus chief minister Nitish Kumar is a big question. The Congress will have to face questions as to who is its face against  Modi in the coming months. Modi would work 24X7. He is expected to address 75 meetings in the coming months. But who in the Congress would counter them in the field is yet to become clear.
Modi clearly indicated that he would put Dr Singh and Gandhi in the dock on issues of unemployment, price rise, governance, law and order, and even on internal security. But division in the BJP, Sangh Parivar and an ambitious second rung in the saffron party could deflate the BJP’s plan to come to power.
Modi’s elevation will compel the Congress to strengthen the UPA and consolidate the secular players against him in the coming Lok Sabha elections. The Congress’s six-member pre-poll alliances sub-group, headed by A.K. Antony, has held one meeting so far. A six-member election coordination committee under the chairmanship of Congress vice-president Rahul Gandhi has also been constituted.