DC Special: Will NaMonia spread

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A week is a long time in politics, more so if it happens to be Indian politics. Who would have thought last week that Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi, (NaMo to party faithfuls) thanks to relentless pressure from the cadres, would become more equal than the Generation-Next leaders within the BJP’s hierarchy? Who could have foreseen last week the dramatic fall from grace of L.K. Advani? Who could have fathomed the abrupt end of the Vajpayee-Advani era? As this goes to the press and Modi moves to centrestage, there are tell-tale evidences that the NDA too could face significant re-alignments.
Surely, it has been Modi’s week. An able administrator, a brilliant communicator and a clean politician, Modi remains a formidable political opponent, for anyone within his party and outside. That explains why most of the Gen-Next BJP leaders fell in line in Goa without any demur as he was anointed (whatever that may mean) as the chairman of the campaign committee of the BJP for the general elections. No wonder even the resignation of Advani did not cut much ice with the rank and file.
Put pithily, Modi is akin to a disruptive technology that makes all others irrelevant. For starters, he brings in a model of working that is decidedly decisive. There are no half-measures in his approach. He may be wrong, but confused he is not. In direct contrast to a party that had perfected the art of building consensus — an euphemism for analysis, paralysis and dialysis — Modi is, indeed, refreshingly different.
What else would explain the non-existent contribution of several in-house party committees, groups and think-tanks constituted and dominated by the BJP leadership till date? Unfortunately, within the party, debates became more important than delivery; form mattered over substance. In the process, the disconnect was complete between its core voter base and apex leadership.
There is yet another dimension to the dysfunctional leadership issue of the BJP. Party leaders had developed cosy comfort of being in the Opposition. For party cadres (in direct contrast to its leaders) for its nine years in the Opposition, the BJP has been a spectacular failure. Democracy requires the Opposition to play a constructive role — cooperate with the government when it is right and criticise it when it is wrong. Crucially, whenever it criticises, the Opposition is supposed to spell out alternatives.
Thanks to the tutoring by sections of the media, the BJP lost its zest to oppose. It could have been a classic case of replacing Tweedledum with Tweedledee!  To the cadres, the drift was palpable; the confusion in the minds of the leadership, apparent. Given the state of drift within the party, the writing was clear on the wall insofar as it pertained to the outcome of the elections. That explains why the ascendency of Modi was cadre-driven, a bottom-up approach, and not leadership-driven, a top-down approach.
The spectacular catapulting of  Modi raises questions and apprehensions too; some justifiably so. Modi’s development model has been a remarkable success. Surely, it is an administrative model that has the backing (possibly cravings) of significant sections of our population. But can this be a pan-Indian model? Obviously, the establishment in Delhi, rooted as it were to a centrist ideology, would not be playing footsie with Modi as was the case in Gujarat. Under such circumstances, can he deliver? What should cause consternation to Modi is the repeated refusal of the elite of Delhi (across party lines) to accept someone from the hinterland. That explains the opposition to Modi from within his party and outside.
Inevitably that takes us to Rahul Gandhi. Sadly, the scion of the Gandhi-Nehru family feels that his studied silence is an answer to all ills plaguing the nation. What has Gandhi got to say about the depreciating rupee or any other challenges facing the economy? What is his opinion on Sri Lankan Tamil issue or relationship with China or the US? To put it mildly, he is an enigma wrapped in a puzzle packaged through a riddle and delivered through silence.
Congressmen secretly welcome the ascendancy of Modi, hoping that his rise will polarise the polity. A diffused agenda with Gandhi at the helm could possibly be a strategic response of the Congress to the clear-cut, no-nonsense approach of Modi. This is the polarisation that Congressmen are secretly hoping for. Such a paradigm would not only benefit Modi but, in the calculus of the Congress, benefit it too. Needless to emphasise, the manner in which Modi would reach out to the minorities, especially Muslims, could well determine the outcome of the elections. Likewise, how Modi is able to revitalise the BJP in UP could decide who will form the next government. That is not all. Increasingly, Modi, too, would come under political scrutiny. For starters, he has to answer all these questions that are posed to Gandhi.
But the billion-dollar question remains: Is Modi a polarising figure? Your guess is as good as mine. But the fact remains that a person who has led his party to three consecutive victories at the hustings may not well be a role model but well could be a unique model. If the experience of the past decade or so in Gujarat is any indication, the fact remains that Modi has played his political cards well.
In parallel, there are speculations within the media about the formation of a third front. It is common knowledge that a Modi-led BJP significantly erodes the voter base of several of these regional parties. But there is something more. The virtual decimation of the Left has spectacularly robbed the third front of its legitimacy, if not its political and ideological core.
That apart, there is a serious issue with the arithmetic. For a viable third front, the BSP must be willing to do business with the SP, DMK with AIDAMK and the Left with Mamata. All these imply that the third front could well be a political non-starter.
Modi’s ascendancy has altered the Indian political landscape. And if history of the past two decades is any indication, the BJP instantly becomes a secular party if and only if it gets more than 180 seats. This time around for its cadre the best bet for the BJP to get that number and beyond is Modi. And should he break the ceiling, regional parties would conjure means to do business with him.
The author is a Chennai-based chartered accountant and columnist.  He can be contacted at mrv@mrv.net.in [2]
Next: Sishya upstages guru
 

Sishya upstages guru
Girish Nikam
When the deal was struck between then prime minister Atal Behari Vajpayee and his deputy L.K. Advani on that fateful flight to Goa from Delhi in 2002, soon after the Gujarat riots, to replace Narendra Modi as chief minister of Gujarat, it seemed like “Raj dharma” was indeed being followed.
But it all came unstuck a few hours later, when even before any announcement could be made about the deal, a howling and shouting brigade at the BJP’s national executive ensured it didn’t happen. Vajpayee watched stupefied and didn’t press for the matter again. Later, when he was confronted by one of the national executive members as to why he remained silent, his response was, “It was not just those who were shouting, there are bigger forces behind them”.
And that “bigger force”, as everyone later realised, was Advani. The man who is now trying to put a spoke in the wheel of the Modi juggernaut, which threatens to split the polity of the country, all over again. Some say it is divine justice, especially those who believe in the divine forces acting to set right the injustices. Whatever it is, the fact is that the story has come a full circle, as the BJP and RSS leadership tries to get used to the Modi era that seems to have begun.
In the days when Modi was not NaMo, the legend, that his supporters now project him to be, he was a quiet, back-room operator. Even as a BJP national secretary, brought in by Advani indeed, in the mid ’90s, he was known to operate behind the scenes, and was available to only a few journalists whom he trusted. As a journalist observed, he remains a shadowy figure even today, trusting few and operating in isolation.
But his ambition has not been a secret at all. And that has been on full display even before he acquired a third term as the Chief Minister of Gujarat, at  the end of last year. The care with which he and his close circle of trusted sycophants, which does not include most of the central leadership of the party, crafted the strategy during the Gujarat campaign, obviously indicated the larger ambition he has. It was made known to the Gujarati voter that they were not voting just for a third term for Modi, but for him to stake claim for prime ministership.
And it succeeded.Soon after he was crowned the third time as the Chief Minister, he started scenting trouble in his own party. His plans to elevate himself, even as he held on to the chief ministership, were facing trouble from within. Advani’s disinclination was not something Modi was not aware of. Therefore, according to an insider to his plans, he played the master card.
He is said to have made it known that if he is not given the responsibility to anchor the campaign for 2014 elections, and some of his preferred appointments, like Amit Shah to oversee UP was not made, he would confine himself to Gujarat. No campaign outside Gujarat, don’t expect any funds.
Now that he has managed to virtually bulldoze all opposition from within, including sidelining his mentor, nurturer and protector, Advani, the real challenge for him has just begun.
The Modi coterie has little patience or concern for these regional satraps’ “tantrums” or threats. According to them, the country is ready to embrace Modi wholeheartedly with or without the allies, and the numbers that can be gathered by the party on its own, will be such that all these whining allies will return once the results are out It is this confidence, some say over-confidence, which is driving the Modi juggernaut within the party. In fact, slowly even the sceptics within have started turning around and having a re-think and wondering, why not? And this was visible when a horde of party leaders made a beeline to the Prithviraj Road residence of Advani earlier this week. So much so that even the RSS, which has not been entirely comfortable with the style of functioning of Modi and the way he has sidelined the organisation and its sister entities like the VHP and Bajrang Dal in Gujarat, also joined the bandwagon. Such is the power of persuasion of the Modi magic being weaved by his coterie.
But, obviously, there are concerns in some quarters, at least about what the Modi projection would do. For one, it certainly is going to polarise the political atmosphere in the country, with the minorities moving away from not just the BJP, whatever little support they had, but also from those who ally with the party. No wonder panic buttons are already pressed in the Janata Dal(U), Trinamul Congress and Biju Janata Dal. This is what Advani is worried about, as he strongly feels, and maybe rightly so too, not just the BJP, not just the present NDA but it is NDA-plus which can catapult it to power in 2014. And with Modi at the helm, it may not just be possible.
The writer is a Delhi-based analyst and columnist