There was little doubt that Bihar chief minister and JD(U) leader Nitish Kumar, who decisively rebuffed the BJP on the Narendra Modi issue and walked out of the NDA last Sunday, would win his trust vote even without the BJP.
When the BJP block of 91, now constituting the main Opposition in the state, walked out of the Assembly before the trust vote was taken, it became evident that the saffron party was not counting on the floor of the House to show its strength.
The state BJP leadership does have a point when it says Mr Kumar could become CM on account of the NDA’s vote. Had the JD(U) and BJP fought the last election — or the one before that — separately, there may well have been a government of Lalu Prasad Yadav’s RJD and its allies in Patna at the present juncture.
While Mr Kumar, whose government still has two and a half years to go, may carry on being CM as he has won the confidence vote, it is plausible to argue that the present Assembly may not represent today’s political reality. So, will the CM agree to go to the people at the first opportunity and have an Assembly poll along that of the next Lok Sabha election?
This is a position the JD(U)’s detractors may take with some justification, and the party’s stand is likely to depend on the kind of allies it is able to stitch together to make up for the loss of the BJP’s political constituency. Can this deficit be made good with a combination of the Congress and the Left in Bihar with some kind of an arm’s length arrangement with RJD?
It is too early to make a guess because personal and political egos are running riot.
The BJP had returned to the Treasury benches in the Patna Assembly after a long gap in the company of the JD(U). The party has let that position of advantage go because it wanted to swear by just one man. This is obviously a very calculated risk. As in the rest of the country so in Bihar, the saffron party will be hard up for allies. That is why the decision looks so impetuous. Mr Kumar is right. The so-called betrayal was from the saffron camp, and not from the side of its Bihar subaltern
backers.
In the coming weeks and months, the Nitish government may see heavy protest activities from its erstwhile allies and also attempts to break his party. The CM will probably take such factors into account while charting his future course. His best bet may be to find allies in the state before he looks outside.