Reaction begets action

We have had a good monsoon till date. Based on the rainfall so far we can predict increased gross domestic product (GDP) growth. As agricultural output increases dramatically and the forces of demand and supply work to moderate food inflation, at least statistically, the reality is that farmers across the country are getting a better price for their produce. That is why I am not really sure if this will be an electoral issue in the next round of Assembly elections.

Whatever may be the issues, the fact is that politics is keeping pace with the velocity of the rainfall. We see increased activity in Bihar where Assembly elections are due in three months, and in Andhra Pradesh the Telugu Desam Party (TDP) chief has received an electoral gift from the Congress when he, along with 72 MLAs, was placed under arrest in Maharashtra when they attempted to go to the Babli barrage project to stage a protest. Fortunately, better sense prevailed and the cases were withdrawn, but the political damage is already done. The byelections in Telangana and the Assembly elections in Bihar will be keenly watched for future trends in the Tamil Nadu, West Bengal and Uttar Pradesh Assembly elections due in 2010-2011.
India exists in many dimensions and the next few months will see hectic political activity — likely alliances for the future will start taking shape and likely winners and losers will become clear after these two crucial elections. In three months, as the monsoon retreats, leaving in its wake a record agricultural output and a GDP growth trend close to nine per cent in the short term, we will see “change” coming into our daily lives. We often talk of our demographic advantages but fail to realise that a younger generation is already moving into positions of authority, and this, more than anything else, is the biggest positive on the horizon.
Governance today is not easy as a coalition government poses several challenges — to reconcile regional aspirations and arrive at a consensus is a complex task. As we look into the future we have security issues, both external and internal, to tackle, though I think that under the prevailing circumstances we have done well on the security front. I do not see a negative in the situation with Pakistan. The statements of the Pakistan foreign minister held few surprises as we are well aware of the contradictions in Pakistan’s power structure. It’s no secret that US aid and arms supplied to fight terrorists have been used against India in three conflicts in the past. It is for the US to realise and acknowledge the reality of the situation, though, given the chaos in Iraq and Afghanistan, they too have limited options.
We should expect few miracles from Pakistan and must be ready to deal with an emerging situation in the immediate future as the US makes a planned or unplanned exit from Afghanistan because the situation there is beyond their control.
The recent international conference in Kabul meant blanket security-cover, shutting down the city and many VVIPs, including the Secretary-General of the United Nations, had to land their aircraft at the US base. We, along with the global community, need little confirmation of the fact that the 26/11 attacks were planned and executed by Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI). Home secretary G.K. Pillai made the right statement, as did national security adviser (NSA) Shivshankar Menon, but sadly we can no longer be dismissive of the situation in Pakistan as clearly the Army and the ISI are in total control of the situation.
The situation in Jammu and Kashmir will remain volatile for some time but chief minister Omar Abdullah has done well by calling in the Army on a “temporary” basis. In such situations assuming a firm posture is an important step towards a future solution. The National Conference and the People’s Democratic Party will continue their political battles but the good thing is that the economy and tourism are booming in the Valley and, like everywhere else in the country, the reaction of the voting public is a step ahead of the politicians.

The Commonwealth Games approach. It is rather unfortunate that the Queen will miss this event for the first time. I sometimes wonder about the relevance of this organisation in the current global structure. Every little incident of this nature further diminishes the relevance of the Commonwealth.
The UK is going through a difficult economic situation and will have to curtail many “expenditures”. This, to some extent, is understandable, but action initiated on the immigration front is not a friendly act — you cannot have free and unrestricted movement of goods and services without free movement of people in a global society. The UK’s new visa regime is bound to lead to issues related to racism. The UK, however, is not alone in this and I think the ministry of external affairs has to look into these issues and at some stage consider returning the favour.
Besides the “soap opera” being played out between the Board of Control for Cricket in India and Lalit Modi, a great deal of controversy is being generated in the sports arena. First we had the spat between the sports minister and the International Olympic Committee and the sports associations, and now sexual harassment charges have been levelled against the coach of the women’s hockey team. It is unfortunate that all these battles are being fought in the media. An inquiry will soon unearth the truth behind the allegations of the women’s hockey team.
With regard to the Commonwealth Games, I am sure that all parties involved will argue that they are on firm ground though the overall impression is that sports bodies are run on very feudal lines with strong vested interests. In this archaic system there are many with talent and ability who seem to be quite helpless to bring about any real change. I have some experience of events of this nature but cannot understand the existence of several power centres pulling in different directions. If anything goes wrong with the Commonwealth Games, all these power centres must be jointly held responsible.

Arun Nehru is a former Union minister