The BJP could stand to gain further in Vidarbha if the Congress creates a separate Telangana state due to electoral compulsions before the Lok Sabha elections. This is becoming clearer.
The process of the Congress’ erosion in Vidarbha began in 1995-96 due to different factors, including that of the pre-poll alliance between the BJP and the Shiv Sena. This has been helping the saffron combine to check the Congress-NCP in the region.
The BJP has been consistent in demanding a separate state for Vidarbha but the Congress has been speaking in different voices as a strategy while the Sharad Pawar-led NCP says it will go with the sentiments of people in the region on this issue.
The demand of a separate Vidarbha state will gain momentum once the Congress bifurcates Andhra Pradesh. Barring the Shiv Sena, the rest of the major parties in Maharashtra — the Congress, BJP and the NCP — are refusing to oppose Vidarbha state directly.
The pro-Vidarbha parties cannot remain silent on this issue after the bifurcation of Madhya Pradesh and the agitation on Telangana entering into the decisive phase. This is because both Madhya Pradesh and Andhra Pradesh are neighbouring Maharashtra.
The BJP-Shiv Sena combine has won Akola, Amravati, Buldhana, Chandrapur and Yavatmal-Washim Lok Sabha seats in Vidarbha in 2009 and is confident of defeating the Congress candidates in Ramtek, Wardha and Nagpur in the coming general election.
In the 2004 Lok Sabha elections, Mr Vilas Muttemwar was the only Congress candidate who got elected from the prestigious Nagpur seat. In fact, he has been winning from there since 1998 without a break.
But now top Congress leaders in the state are predicting the party’s defeat in Vidarbha. The Congress’ sitting Lok Sabha member from Wardha, Mr Datta Meghe, is refusing to contest against the BJP if it fields Mr Nitin Gadkari from there.
Interestingly, many Congress leaders in the region are in the BJP’s good book despite their public postures.
The Shiv Sena, the only party opposing division of Maharashtra, would find it difficlult to retain its Amravati, Buldhana and Yavatmal-Washim seats if it goes it alone on this issue.