Despite the grim economic situation, governance and coalition compulsions, Congress managers see a UPA-3. Thanks to the Narendra Modi-RSS combine.
The political situation would become clearer in the next couple of months, they predicted. The emergence of Narendra Modi-RSS combine as an alternative to the Sonia Gandhi-led party would compel regional players in UP, Bihar, West Bengal, Andhra Pradesh, Maharashtra, Orissa and, to some extent, Tamil Nadu to distance themselves from the hardliners who foresee a “wave” in favour of Mr Modi’s Gujarat model of development.
A senior Union minister of the Congress described this as a mindset of “feel good and India Shining”.
Reports reaching the Congress headquarters here suggest that the party may receive a setback in urban constituencies because of the price rise, unemployment, governance and corruption. But the food security and the land acquisition bills would help it in retaining its hold in rural areas in the country.
Politically, emergence of Mr Narendra Modi, the BJP’s campaign committee chief, and the RSS’s support to him as the BJP’s PM candidate could help the Congress.
The Samajwadi Party, BSP, Trinamul Congress, BJD, Janata Dal (U), RJD, LJP, TDP, Left cannot afford to be friendly with the BJP under Mr Modi’s leadership despite they are checking the Congress to regain lost ground in their respective states.
The AIADMK has been keeping the BJP and the Left in good humour in Tamil Nadu.
The BJP stands isolated in the key states like UP, Bihar, Tamil Nadu, West Bengal, Andhra Pradesh, Kerala, Orissa and Tripura.
Even the Shiv Sena, its oldest ideological ally, is giving conflicting signals on Mr Modi’s leadership because the latter is close to the Raj Thackeray-led MNS.
Barring the SAD, no regional party, whether in the NDA or outside, is keen to associate it with the hard-liner.
On the other hand, the Congress is optimistic that West Bengal chief minister Mamata Banerjee would be back in the UPA after the Lok Sabha elections. And if the BJP announces Mr Modi as its PM candidate in the coming days, then even the Left would have no option but to move closer to the Congress.